Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 15hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%O2.551%48%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Minnesota United2:2Houston DynamoD
- Minnesota United3:1Houston DynamoL
- Houston Dynamo2:0Minnesota UnitedW
- Houston Dynamo1:1Minnesota UnitedD
- Minnesota United1:2Houston DynamoW
Houston Dynamo's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 10.0under 10.5: 61%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.0league 4.1under 4.5: 63%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.5 : 1.2total 2.7Attack/defence1.5 : 1.1total 2.6
Houston Dynamo : Minnesota UnitedMost likely scores
Model1-113%1-010%2-19%0-1—2-08%0-07%Attack/defence1-113%1-011%2-19%0-18%2-08%0-08%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-010%1-011%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-18%2-02-08%2-08%0-00-07%0-08%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%73% | 73% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 71%71% | 71% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71%74% | 74% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 55%56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51%48% | 48% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49%52% | 52% |
| 1 – Houston Dynamo win | 45%44% · Elo 46% | 44%· Elo 46% |
| 2 – Minnesota United win | 29%29% · Elo 27% | 29%· Elo 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29%26% | 26% |
| X – draw | 27%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24%27% | 27% |
Attack vs defence
Houston Dynamo attack vs Minnesota United defenceattack1410defence1498−88 pts to the attack
Minnesota United attack vs Houston Dynamo defenceattack1517defence1581−64 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 65%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 8.5 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.548%55%
9.536%44%
10.525%33%
11.517%25%
Each team on its own
Houston Dynamowe expect 4.5, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 31%
Minnesota Unitedwe expect 3.6, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 30%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 21.2 in this match, 21.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.553%53%
21.546%46%
22.539%40%
23.532%35%
Each team on its own
Houston Dynamowe expect 9.2, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 33%
Minnesota Unitedwe expect 11.9, league average 10.5 · chance of over 10.5: 62%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 73%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 27%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.549%59%
3.527%39%
4.513%20%
5.55%11%
Each team on its own
Houston Dynamowe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Minnesota Unitedwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Minnesota United concede 2.6 goals per game
- Minnesota United: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Minnesota United: only 6 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Minnesota United: no win in 7 matches
- Houston Dynamo: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Minnesota United: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Western Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 36:34 | 45 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 42:51 | 30 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United?
Houston Dynamo are the favourites. Chances: Houston Dynamo win 45%, draw 27%, Minnesota United win 29%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United?
Expected goals: 2.7 (Houston Dynamo 1.5, Minnesota United 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United?
The MLS match kicks off 25 October 2026, 01:30 (UK time).