Minnesota United vs St. Louis City: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS66%62%O2.563%60%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- St. Louis City4:2Minnesota UnitedL
- St. Louis City1:2Minnesota UnitedW
- Minnesota United3:0St. Louis CityW
- Minnesota United4:1St. Louis CityW
- St. Louis City1:3Minnesota UnitedW
Minnesota United's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss4.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 10.0under 10.5: 60%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.0league 4.1under 4.5: 63%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 1.6total 3.3Attack/defence1.7 : 1.4total 3.1
Minnesota United : St. Louis CityMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-18%1-28%1-06%2-27%2-0—Attack/defence1-111%2-19%1-28%1-07%2-26%2-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%2-12-18%2-19%1-21-28%1-28%1-01-06%1-07%2-22-27%2-26%2-02-0—2-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%76% | 76% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66%62% | 62% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 64%69% | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63%60% | 60% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 62%55% | 55% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59%63% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41%37% | 37% |
| 1 – Minnesota United win | 39%45% · Elo 36% | 45%· Elo 36% |
| 2 – St. Louis City win | 37%31% · Elo 36% | 31%· Elo 36% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37%40% | 40% |
| Both teams to score: no | 34%38% | 38% |
| X – draw | 25%24% · Elo 28% | 24%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
Minnesota United attack vs St. Louis City defenceattack1517defence1515+2 pts to the attack
St. Louis City attack vs Minnesota United defenceattack1541defence1498+43 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 9.3 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.558%55%
9.545%44%
10.534%33%
11.524%25%
Each team on its own
Minnesota Unitedwe expect 4.5, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 31%
St. Louis Citywe expect 4.7, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 50%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 22.7 in this match, 21.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.563%53%
21.556%46%
22.549%40%
23.542%35%
Each team on its own
Minnesota Unitedwe expect 11.6, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 59%
St. Louis Citywe expect 11.2, league average 10.5 · chance of over 10.5: 55%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 69%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 31%
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.553%59%
3.531%39%
4.516%20%
5.57%11%
Each team on its own
Minnesota Unitedwe expect 1.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 47%
St. Louis Citywe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Minnesota United concede 2.6 goals per game
- St. Louis City score 3.0 goals per game
- Minnesota United: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- St. Louis City: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- St. Louis City: 4 wins in a row
- Minnesota United: only 6 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Minnesota United: 3 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- St. Louis City: 3 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Western Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 54:38 | 50 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 42:51 | 30 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Minnesota United vs St. Louis City?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Minnesota United win 39%, draw 25%, St. Louis City win 37%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Minnesota United vs St. Louis City?
Expected goals: 3.3 (Minnesota United 1.7, St. Louis City 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 63%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Minnesota United vs St. Louis City?
The chance that both teams score is 66%.
When is Minnesota United vs St. Louis City?
The MLS match kicks off 17 October 2026, 21:30 (UK time).