New England Revolution 0-3 Seattle Sounders: prediction, tips and result

Sunday 11 October · 00:30

New England Revolution

1-2 2-1 2-1 4-2 0-3

0-3Full time(half time 0-1)

Seattle Sounders

2-1 3-1 2-0 3-3 1-1

Stadium:: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Referee:: Tori Penso

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: 10 October 2026, 20:40. A published tip never changes.

Main tip

Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5Won62%

under 4.5 card points in 9 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 9 of the visitors' last 10 (55% of league matches); 3.1 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 2.8 in the visitors', league average 4.5; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

Fouls: Under 18.5Lost71%
our numbers: 16.2 fouls against a league average of 21.1; 15.9 fouls a match in the hosts' matches, 16.6 in the visitors', league average 21.1
Shots on Target – New England Revolution: Over 5.5Lost57%
our numbers for New England Revolution: 6.2 shots on target against a league average of 5.0; New England Revolution: 5.9 shots on target a match, Seattle Sounders's opponents had 5.6 on average, league average 5.0
Offsides: Under 3.5Won69%
under 3.5 offsides in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 9 of the visitors' last 10 (61% of league matches)

For the brave

Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Won44%

3.1 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 2.8 in the visitors', league average 4.5; under 3.5 card points in 5 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (37% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloNew England Revolution139349%40%Draw24%28%Seattle Sounders146527%32%favourite did not win

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS64%55%O2.563%51%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.2not both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

07/07/202407/07/24Seattle Sounders2:0New England RevolutionL
10/08/201910/08/19Seattle Sounders3:3New England RevolutionD
07/07/201807/07/18New England Revolution0:0Seattle SoundersD
30/04/201730/04/17Seattle Sounders3:3New England RevolutionD
28/05/201628/05/16New England Revolution2:1Seattle SoundersW

New England Revolution's record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss3.4 goals per match

Cornersleague corners10.6league 10.0under 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.6 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 13

Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 4.1under 4.5: 66%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.won · ended 3

RefereeT. Penso+0.1 yellow cards vs average14 matches

Dutching(several bets at once)75%O2.51:1coverageleague 71% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.9 : 1.4total 3.3Attack/defence1.5 : 1.2total 2.7

New England Revolution : Seattle Sounders

Most likely scores

Market1-111%1-07%2-19%0-1—2-07%1-27%Attack/defence1-112%1-09%2-19%0-18%2-07%1-27%

MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-01-07%1-09%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-18%2-02-07%2-07%1-21-27%1-27%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	84%76%	76%
12 – no draw	76%74%	74%
1X – home team avoid defeat	73%69%	69%
Both teams to score: yes	64%55%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	63%51%	51%
Under 3.5 goals	59%71%	71%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	51%57%	57%
1 – New England Revolution win	49%43% · Elo 40%	43%· Elo 40%
Over 3.5 goals	41%29%	29%
Under 2.5 goals	37%49%	49%
Both teams to score: no	36%45%	45%
2 – Seattle Sounders win	27%31% · Elo 32%	31%· Elo 32%
X – draw	24%26% · Elo 28%	26%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals	16%24%	24%

Attack vs defence

New England Revolution attack vs Seattle Sounders defenceattack1502defence1557−55 pts to the attack

Seattle Sounders attack vs New England Revolution defenceattack1492defence1506−14 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Over 9.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over

We expect 9.8 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

8.563%53%

9.551%42%

10.539%32%

11.529%24%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

New England Revolutionwe expect 6.2, league average 5.0 · chance of over 5.5: 57%

Seattle Sounderswe expect 4.1, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 39%

Foulsleague average

Under 21.5 · 87%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 13%

We expect 16.2 in this match, 21.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

20.517%53%

21.513%45%

22.59%39%

23.57%33%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

New England Revolutionwe expect 8.4, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 24%

Seattle Sounderswe expect 8.8, league average 10.4 · chance of over 10.5: 28%

Referee: 20.0 fouls per match on average (70 matches in our data)−2.2 vs the league average

Offsidesleague average

Under 3.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%

We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.554%59%

3.532%39%

4.516%20%

5.57%11%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

New England Revolutionwe expect 1.7, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 49%

Seattle Sounderswe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 31%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Seattle Sounders matches average only 2.8 cards (league 4.3) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
New England Revolution matches average only 3.0 cards (league 4.3) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
New England Revolution: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
Seattle Sounders matches average 12.1 corners (league 10.0) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
Seattle Sounders: unbeaten in 8 matches
New England Revolution: 14 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
Seattle Sounders: 9 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

League form