New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 17hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS68%56%O2.568%54%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Toronto FC1:1New York Red BullsD
- Toronto FC1:1New York Red BullsD
- New York Red Bulls2:1Toronto FCW
- Toronto FC1:4New York Red BullsW
- New York Red Bulls3:0Toronto FCW
New York Red Bulls's record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.2league 10.0under 10.5: 56%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 4.1under 4.5: 65%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.9 : 1.5total 3.4Attack/defence1.7 : 1.2total 2.8
New York Red Bulls : Toronto FCMost likely scores
Market1-110%2-19%1-0—2-06%1-27%2-27%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%2-110%1-010%2-08%1-27%2-2—0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-112%2-12-19%2-110%1-01-0—1-010%2-02-06%2-08%1-21-27%1-27%2-22-27%2-2—0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 70%74% | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68%56% | 56% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 54%51% | 51% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 54%69% | 69% |
| 1 – New York Red Bulls win | 46%49% · Elo 47% | 49%· Elo 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46%31% | 31% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32%47% | 47% |
| Both teams to score: no | 32%44% | 44% |
| 2 – Toronto FC win | 30%26% · Elo 26% | 26%· Elo 26% |
| X – draw | 24%25% · Elo 27% | 25%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
New York Red Bulls attack vs Toronto FC defenceattack1465defence1475−10 pts to the attack
Toronto FC attack vs New York Red Bulls defenceattack1417defence1476−59 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 9.3 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.557%55%
9.545%44%
10.533%33%
11.523%25%
Each team on its own
New York Red Bullswe expect 5.2, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 41%
Toronto FCwe expect 4.1, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 40%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 21.4 in this match, 21.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.554%53%
21.547%46%
22.540%40%
23.533%35%
Each team on its own
New York Red Bullswe expect 11.5, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 59%
Toronto FCwe expect 9.9, league average 10.5 · chance of over 10.5: 40%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.569%59%
3.548%39%
4.529%20%
5.516%11%
Each team on its own
New York Red Bullswe expect 2.0, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 57%
Toronto FCwe expect 1.7, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Toronto FC concede 2.0 goals per game
- Toronto FC: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- New York Red Bulls played 3 days ago
- Toronto FC played 3 days ago
League form
League position
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 38:52 | 36 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 41:52 | 32 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?
New York Red Bulls are the favourites. Chances: New York Red Bulls win 46%, draw 24%, Toronto FC win 30%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?
Expected goals: 3.4 (New York Red Bulls 1.9, Toronto FC 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 68%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?
The chance that both teams score is 68%.
When is New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?
The MLS match kicks off 18 October 2026, 00:30 (UK time).