Phoenix Rising vs Lexington SC: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 19hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%O2.555%53%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.3
H2Hlast 3 meetings
- Lexington SC1:0Phoenix RisingL
- Lexington SC2:0Phoenix RisingL
- Phoenix Rising0:1Lexington SCL
Phoenix Rising's record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses1.3 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.9league 9.2under 9.5: 60%Expected corners: 8.9 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.0league 4.2under 4.5: 62%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.5 : 1.4total 2.9Attack/defence1.5 : 1.3total 2.8
Phoenix Rising : Lexington SCMost likely scores
Model1-112%2-19%1-08%1-28%0-18%2-0—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%1-28%0-18%2-07%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-08%1-09%1-21-28%1-28%0-10-18%0-18%2-02-0—2-07%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67%69% | 69% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 66%68% | 68% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 60%58% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55%53% | 53% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45%47% | 47% |
| 1 – Phoenix Rising win | 41%42% · Elo 36% | 42%· Elo 36% |
| 2 – Lexington SC win | 35%32% · Elo 36% | 32%· Elo 36% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 25%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Phoenix Rising attack vs Lexington SC defenceattack1530defence1499+31 pts to the attack
Lexington SC attack vs Phoenix Rising defenceattack1563defence1487+76 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 8.0 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.554%51%
8.541%34%
9.529%28%
10.519%24%
Each team on its own
Phoenix Risingwe expect 3.9, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 36%
Lexington SCwe expect 3.9, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 59%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 21.5 in this match, 22.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.548%63%
22.541%52%
23.534%46%
24.528%41%
Each team on its own
Phoenix Risingwe expect 10.5, league average 11.0 · chance of over 11.5: 37%
Lexington SCwe expect 10.8, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 40%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 2.2 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.565%70%
2.539%55%
3.519%39%
4.58%17%
Each team on its own
Phoenix Risingwe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 30%
Lexington SCwe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 28%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Phoenix Rising: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Phoenix Rising matches average only 7.1 corners (league 9.2) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Phoenix Rising: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Lexington SC: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Western Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lexington SC | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 49:33 | 44 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 39:42 | 36 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Phoenix Rising vs Lexington SC?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Phoenix Rising win 41%, draw 25%, Lexington SC win 35%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Phoenix Rising vs Lexington SC?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Phoenix Rising 1.5, Lexington SC 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 55%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Phoenix Rising vs Lexington SC?
The USL Championship match kicks off 25 October 2026, 02:00 (UK time).