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Challenger Sioux FallsChallenger 125Semifinalhard, indoorbest of three sets

Draxl vs Dominko 2:1: result and our tips

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Liam DraxlATP #168Elo 1839hard 1825
2:1final6:7(7) 7:6(6) 6:4
Sebastian DominkoATP #456Elo 1665hard 1703

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Won72%

Where the number comes from: market alone 67% → with the players' profiles 72%

Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Draxl 15 of 20, Dominko 6 of 6 (tour average 62%); Draxl: 7 matches in a row over 19.5 games

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: DraxlLost57%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Draxl won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches, Dominko lost the first set in 2 of the last 6 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
1st Set Winner: DominkoWon43%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Dominko: 4 matches in a row winning the first set

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Liam Draxl60%
Sebastian Dominko40%

Elo: L. Draxl 67% · S. Dominko 33%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Draxl38%
2:1 L. Draxl21%
2:1 S. Dominko17%
2:0 S. Dominko24%

First set

Liam Draxl57%
Sebastian Dominko43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.572%28%62%
20.563%37%54%
21.557%43%49%
22.551%49%42%
23.544%56%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.538%62%32%

Sample: 6,017 matches

Games handicap

L. Draxl −2.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes41%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 36 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Liam DraxlSebastian Dominko
8Aces10
1Double faults6
70%First serves in64%
73%First-serve points won76%
47%Second-serve points won41%
4/10Break points converted3/6
14/17Service games held13/17
65%Service points won63%
37%Return points won35%
121Total points won116

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. DraxlTourS. Dominko
Service points won62%62%68%
Return points won40%38%36%
Service games held74%76%86%
Breaks of serve29%24%18%
Aces per service game0.420.87
Double faults per game0.240.39
Sets with a tie-break18%23%
Tie-breaks won14/282/3
Wins in straight sets46%80%
Matches in the sample646

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Liam Draxl

Sebastian Dominko

Elo over the last year

Liam DraxlSebastian Dominko

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. DraxlS. Dominko
Hard court32–1864%5–183%
Clay7–654%0–0
Grass0–10%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Liam Draxl

Sebastian Dominko

See also