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Challenger KnoxvilleChallenger 75Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Gray vs Blanch: prediction and tips

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Alastair GrayATP #270Elo 1570hard 1546
-:-awaiting result
Darwin BlanchATP #149Elo 1819hard 1796

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: Blanch70%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 70%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Gray lost 8 of the last 10 matches; Blanch won 7 of the last 10 matches

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: Blanch64%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Gray lost the first set in 11 of the last 20 matches, Blanch won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
Set Betting: Blanch 2-047%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Gray lost 0-2 in 8 of the last 20 matches, Blanch won 2-0 in 10 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alastair Gray30%
Darwin Blanch70%

Elo: A. Gray 19% · D. Blanch 81%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Gray17%
2:1 A. Gray14%
2:1 D. Blanch22%
2:0 D. Blanch47%

First set

Alastair Gray36%
Darwin Blanch65%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 52%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.569%31%62%
20.561%39%54%
21.554%46%49%
22.548%52%42%
23.542%58%37%
24.538%62%35%
25.535%65%32%

Sample: 4,972 matches

Games handicap

D. Blanch −3.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes39%

tour average 32%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. GrayTourD. Blanch
Service points won64%62%64%
Return points won37%38%37%
Service games held81%76%80%
Breaks of serve21%24%22%
Aces per service game0.570.57
Double faults per game0.270.29
Sets with a tie-break19%17%
Tie-breaks won7/1915/29
Wins in straight sets62%56%
Matches in the sample4370

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alastair Gray

Darwin Blanch

  • 04/11/26LBraden Shick#206Challenger Charlottesville · R165:7 3:6
  • 03/11/26WAndrew Fenty#478Challenger Charlottesville · R326:4 6:3
  • 31/10/26LLiam Draxl#165Challenger Sioux Falls · QF3:6 6:3 0:6
  • 29/10/26WMitchell Krueger#482Challenger Sioux Falls · R166:7 6:4 7:5
  • 27/10/26WSebastian Gorzny#403Challenger Sioux Falls · R326:4 6:2
  • 25/10/26LJenson Brooksby#93Challenger Fort Worth · F1:6 4:6
  • 24/10/26WSander Jong#394Challenger Fort Worth · SF7:6 6:2
  • 23/10/26WMees Rottgering#294Challenger Fort Worth · QF6:3 6:4
  • 21/10/26WDaniel Milavsky#310Challenger Fort Worth · R166:1 6:4
  • 20/10/26WAlbert Pedrico KravtsovChallenger Fort Worth · R326:4 7:5

Elo over the last year

Alastair GrayDarwin Blanch

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. GrayD. Blanch
Hard court15–1845%24–2055%
Clay0–010–759%
Grass6–460%5–456%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Upcoming matches

See also