Paul vs Merida: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
No tie-break in recent matches: Paul 13 of 20, Merida 16 of 20 (tour average 62%)
Other tips
- Total Games: Under 23.563%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Paul: 5 matches in a row under 23.5 games
- Match Winner: Paul79%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 79%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Paul won 7 of the last 10 matches
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: T. Paul 68% · D. Merida 32%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.0
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 74% | 27% | 76% |
| 19.5 | 65% | 35% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 56% | 44% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 42% | 58% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 36% | 64% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 35% | 66% | 38% |
Sample: 3,038 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| T. Paul | Tour | D. Merida | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 66% | 62% | 62% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 41% |
| Service games held | 85% | 76% | 77% |
| Breaks of serve | 24% | 24% | 30% |
| Aces per service game | 0.52 | 0.29 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.15 | 0.24 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 17% | 10% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 15/30 | 10/18 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 58% | |
| Matches in the sample | 67 | 72 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Tommy Paul
- 03/11/26WHolger Rune#433ATP Paris · R647:5 6:4
- 30/10/26LCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP Vienna · QF4:6 6:7
- 29/10/26WLuciano Darderi#21ATP Vienna · R166:1 6:1
- 27/10/26WAndrey Rublev#22ATP Vienna · R327:5 6:2
- 24/10/26LTaylor Fritz#12ATP Lyon · SF3:6 5:7
- 23/10/26WCorentin Moutet#111ATP Lyon · QF6:4 3:6 6:3
- 21/10/26WBenjamin Bonzi#95ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:7 6:3
- 16/10/26LDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Shanghai · QF3:6 6:1 3:6
- 14/10/26WZizou Bergs#40ATP Shanghai · R167:6 6:4
- 12/10/26WValentin Vacherot#27ATP Shanghai · R326:4 6:2
Daniel Merida
- 02/11/26WSebastián Báez#52ATP Paris · R646:4 6:2
- 28/10/26LDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Vienna · R326:7 1:6
- 08/10/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP Shanghai · R1286:1 3:6 4:6
- 04/09/26LAlex Michelsen#35ATP US Open · R326:7 4:6 3:6
- 02/09/26WAndrey Rublev#22ATP US Open · R646:7 6:2 6:4 6:4
- 30/08/26WMarton Fucsovics#144ATP US Open · R1286:4 6:4 6:2
- 18/08/26LTaylor Fritz#12ATP Cincinnati · R323:6 4:6
- 16/08/26WZizou Bergs#40ATP Cincinnati · R646:3 6:2
- 14/08/26WMarin Cilic#96ATP Cincinnati · R1283:6 6:1 6:1
- 11/08/26LLearner Tien#19ATP Montreal · QF3:6 2:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| T. Paul | D. Merida | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 29–1566% | 21–1166% |
| Clay | 11–473% | 26–1170% |
| Grass | 6–275% | 1–233% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Tommy Paul
- 03/11/26WHolger Rune#433ATP Paris · R647:5 6:4
Daniel Merida
- 02/11/26WSebastián Báez#52ATP Paris · R646:4 6:2