WTA TokyoWTA 500Quarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying
Rybakina vs Fernandez: prediction and tips
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Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elena Rybakina77%
Leylah Fernandez23%
Elo: E. Rybakina 84% · L. Fernandez 16%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 E. Rybakina55%
2:1 E. Rybakina21%
2:1 L. Fernandez12%
2:0 L. Fernandez12%
First set
Elena Rybakina71%
Leylah Fernandez29%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 52%market (no margin): 51%
The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 21.7
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 71% | 29% | 72% |
| 18.5 | 63% | 37% | 64% |
| 19.5 | 55% | 45% | 56% |
| 20.5 | 48% | 52% | 49% |
| 21.5 | 43% | 57% | 44% |
| 22.5 | 37% | 63% | 38% |
| 23.5 | 33% | 67% | 34% |
Sample: 1,599 matches
Games handicap
E. Rybakina −4.553%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes21%
tour average 22%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| E. Rybakina | Tour | L. Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 56% | 59% |
| Return points won | 43% | 44% | 43% |
| Service games held | 82% | 63% | 71% |
| Breaks of serve | 34% | 37% | 34% |
| Aces per service game | 0.56 | 0.23 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.27 | 0.42 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 8% | 13% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 8/14 | 4/17 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 64% | 65% | |
| Matches in the sample | 73 | 58 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Elena Rybakina
- 29/10/26WYulia Putintseva#67WTA Tokyo · R166:2 6:3
- 25/10/26WLeylah Fernandez#23WTA Ningbo · F6:2 6:2
- 24/10/26WDiana Shnaider#13WTA Ningbo · SF6:3 7:5
- 23/10/26WKatarzyna Kawa#106WTA Ningbo · QF6:1 3:6 6:1
- 22/10/26WPolina Kudermetova#91WTA Ningbo · R165:0
- 03/10/26LAlina Charaeva#100WTA Beijing · R646:3 4:6 3:6
- 12/09/26WAryna Sabalenka#2WTA US Open · F6:4 5:7 6:2
- 11/09/26WCoco Gauff#5WTA US Open · SF3:6 6:4 6:4
- 09/09/26WQinwen Zheng#22WTA US Open · QF3:6 6:1 6:4
- 07/09/26WNaomi Osaka#18WTA US Open · R166:1 6:4
Leylah Fernandez
- 29/10/26WElise Mertens#14WTA Tokyo · R166:2 7:6
- 27/10/26WHimeno Sakatsume#114WTA Tokyo · R326:2 6:4
- 25/10/26LElena Rybakina#1WTA Ningbo · F2:6 2:6
- 24/10/26WMarie Bouzková#24WTA Ningbo · SF6:3 7:5
- 23/10/26WEkaterina Alexandrova#33WTA Ningbo · QF4:6 6:2 6:1
- 21/10/26WAliaksandra Sasnovich#112WTA Ningbo · R167:5 6:7 6:3
- 19/10/26WElise Mertens#14WTA Ningbo · R322:6 6:3 7:5
- 15/10/26LJeļena Ostapenko#26WTA Wuhan · R161:6 6:1 4:6
- 14/10/26WHan Shi#162WTA Wuhan · R326:3 6:4
- 12/10/26WEkaterina Alexandrova#33WTA Wuhan · R646:4 3:6 6:3
Elo over the last year
Elena RybakinaLeylah Fernandez
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| E. Rybakina | L. Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 46–885% | 22–1658% |
| Clay | 10–377% | 8–753% |
| Grass | 3–350% | 1–420% |
Head to head
E. Rybakina 4–2 L. Fernandez
- 25/10/26Winner: E. Rybakina6:2 6:2
- 17/04/26Winner: E. Rybakina6:7 6:4 7:6
- 23/10/25Winner: E. Rybakina6:4 6:3
- 26/07/25Winner: L. Fernandez7:6 6:7 6:7
- 15/08/24Winner: L. Fernandez6:3 6:7 4:6
- 15/02/24Winner: E. Rybakina6:4 6:2
Road through the tournament
Elena Rybakina
- 29/10/26WYulia Putintseva#67WTA Tokyo · R166:2 6:3
Leylah Fernandez
- 27/10/26WHimeno Sakatsume#114WTA Tokyo · R326:2 6:4
- 29/10/26WElise Mertens#14WTA Tokyo · R166:2 7:6