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Challenger Costa do SauipeChallenger 175Qualifying round 2claybest of three setsqualifying

Tobon vs Storck Franca 0:2: result and our tips

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Miguel TobonATP #432Elo 1620clay 1629
0:2final4:6 2:6
Leonardo Storck FrancaElo 1483clay 1491

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 21.5Won60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Tobon: 4 matches in a row under 21.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Miguel Tobon83%
Leonardo Storck Franca17%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Tobon61%
2:1 M. Tobon22%
2:1 L. Storck Franca8%
2:0 L. Storck Franca9%

First set

Miguel Tobon76%
Leonardo Storck Franca24%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes30%
no70%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 55%market (no margin): 53%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.581%19%84%
17.572%29%76%
18.561%39%68%
19.552%48%59%
20.545%55%52%
21.541%60%46%
22.535%66%40%

Sample: 2,102 matches

Games handicap

M. Tobon −5.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes24%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 20.5in · 18 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Miguel TobonLeonardo Storck Franca
2Aces0
3Double faults4
70%First serves in47%
57%First-serve points won71%
39%Second-serve points won70%
1/2Break points converted4/9
5/9Service games held8/9
52%Service points won71%
29%Return points won48%
46Total points won65

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. TobonTourL. Storck Franca
Service points won62%62%59%
Return points won39%38%40%
Service games held76%76%69%
Breaks of serve26%24%27%
Aces per service game0.390.47
Double faults per game0.330.35
Sets with a tie-break20%0%
Tie-breaks won13/270/0
Wins in straight sets54%100%
Matches in the sample553

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Miguel Tobon

Leonardo Storck Franca

Elo over the last year

Miguel TobonLeonardo Storck Franca

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. TobonL. Storck Franca
Hard court9–950%0–0
Clay19–1851%1–233%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Miguel Tobon

Leonardo Storck Franca

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