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WTA 125 SopoQuarterfinalclaybest of three setsqualifying

Tubello vs Hercog: prediction and tips

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Alice TubelloWTA #146Elo 1798clay 1809
-:-
Polona HercogWTA #200Elo 1634clay 1663

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: Tubello72%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 72%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Tubello won 9 of the last 10 matches

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 22.559%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Tubello: 6 matches in a row under 22.5 games

  • 1st Set Winner: Tubello64%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Tubello won the first set in 16 of the last 20 matches, Hercog lost the first set in 8 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
Set Betting: Tubello 2-048%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Tubello won 2-0 in 12 of the last 20 matches, Hercog lost 0-2 in 5 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Alice Tubello72%
Polona Hercog29%

Elo: A. Tubello 70% · P. Hercog 30%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Tubello48%
2:1 A. Tubello23%
2:1 P. Hercog14%
2:0 P. Hercog16%

First set

Alice Tubello64%
Polona Hercog37%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.573%27%68%
18.565%35%59%
19.556%44%52%
20.549%51%45%
21.546%54%41%
22.541%59%37%
23.536%64%33%

Sample: 1,286 matches

Games handicap

A. Tubello −4.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes21%

tour average 20%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. TubelloTourP. Hercog
Service points won55%56%58%
Return points won47%44%47%
Service games held61%63%67%
Breaks of serve43%37%42%
Aces per service game0.080.23
Double faults per game0.230.25
Sets with a tie-break8%12%
Tie-breaks won4/67/11
Wins in straight sets72%65%
Matches in the sample3238

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alice Tubello

Polona Hercog

  • 11/11/26WCarole Monnet#214WTA 125 Sopo · R166:3 6:0
  • 09/11/26WVarvara Lepchenko#216WTA 125 Sopo · R326:2 7:6
  • 02/11/26LLeyre Romero Gormaz#111WTA 125 Cali · R320:6 1:6
  • 01/11/26WMaria Jose Rico SanchezWTA 125 Cali · Q16:0 6:0
  • 29/10/26LValeriya Strakhova#401WTA 125 Querétaro · R166:2 2:6 2:6
  • 27/10/26WMartina Capurro Taborda#320WTA 125 Querétaro · R327:6 7:5
  • 16/10/26LJessica Bouzas Maneiro#104WTA 125 Lisbon · QF6:4 1:6 4:6
  • 14/10/26WJazmin Ortenzi#187WTA 125 Lisbon · R166:3 3:6 6:3
  • 13/10/26WMadalena MatiasWTA 125 Lisbon · R326:0 6:0
  • 21/09/26LLeyre Romero Gormaz#111WTA 125 Tolentino · R327:6 1:6 6:7

Elo over the last year

Alice TubelloPolona Hercog

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. TubelloP. Hercog
Hard court0–20%0–10%
Clay18–1162%23–1364%
Grass0–10%0–10%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Alice Tubello

Polona Hercog

Upcoming matches

See also