Primera LPFMatchday 13
Belgrano vs River Plate: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 18hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS45%48%O2.538%41%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- River Plate2:3BelgranoW
- River Plate3:0BelgranoL
- River Plate3:0BelgranoL
- Belgrano2:1River PlateW
- River Plate0:0BelgranoD
Belgrano's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.6league 8.8under 8.5: 52%Expected corners: 8.6 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.In this league 48% of matches end under 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.6league 4.8under 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market0.9 : 1.3total 2.2Attack/defence1.2 : 1.2total 2.3
Belgrano : River PlateMost likely scores
Market1-114%0-113%0-012%1-09%0-29%2-1—1-2—Attack/defence1-114%0-111%0-010%1-011%0-2—2-18%1-28%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-114%0-10-113%0-111%0-00-012%0-010%1-01-09%1-011%0-20-29%0-2—2-12-1—2-18%1-21-2—1-28%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 82%79% | 79% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 73%64% | 64% |
| 12 – no draw | 70%71% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66%68% | 68% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62%59% | 59% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 57%65% | 65% |
| Both teams to score: no | 55%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45%48% | 48% |
| 2 – River Plate win | 43%35% · Elo 31% | 35%· Elo 31% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38%41% | 41% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 34%32% | 32% |
| X – draw | 30%29% · Elo 31% | 29%· Elo 31% |
| 1 – Belgrano win | 27%36% · Elo 38% | 36%· Elo 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
Belgrano attack vs River Plate defenceattack1506defence1573−67 pts to the attack
River Plate attack vs Belgrano defenceattack1623defence1545+78 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 7.8 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.565%63%
7.552%52%
8.538%40%
9.527%30%
Each team on its own
Belgranowe expect 4.3, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 42%
River Platewe expect 3.4, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 44%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 55%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 22.1 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.552%56%
22.545%50%
23.538%45%
24.532%37%
Each team on its own
Belgranowe expect 10.4, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 46%
River Platewe expect 11.7, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 49%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over
We expect 4.2 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.578%65%
3.560%41%
4.541%26%
5.525%14%
Each team on its own
Belgranowe expect 1.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
River Platewe expect 2.7, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 73%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Belgrano: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Belgrano concede only 0.5 goals per game
- River Plate concede a lot late on: 9 of 20 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Belgrano score a lot late on: 11 of 26 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Belgrano: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- River Plate: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Clausura, Group B
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Belgrano | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 14:7 | 22 |
| 9 | River Plate | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14:12 | 16 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Belgrano vs River Plate?
River Plate are the favourites. Chances: Belgrano win 27%, draw 30%, River Plate win 43%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Belgrano vs River Plate?
Expected goals: 2.2 (Belgrano 0.9, River Plate 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 38%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Belgrano vs River Plate?
The chance that both teams score is 45%.
When is Belgrano vs River Plate?
The Primera LPF match kicks off 19 October 2026, 00:15 (UK time).