Primera LPFMatchday 11
Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate: prediction, tips and stats
·
- Referee:
- Sebastian Zunino
Our tips
Tip in 17h 19mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS42%51%O2.540%46%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- River Plate2:0Sarmiento JuninL
- River Plate0:1Sarmiento JuninW
- Sarmiento Junin1:1River PlateD
- River Plate1:0Sarmiento JuninL
- Sarmiento Junin0:2River PlateL
Sarmiento Junin's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses1.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.9league 8.8over 8.5: 52%Expected corners: 8.9 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end over 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.6league 4.8under 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 27%.
RefereeS. Zunino0.0 yellow cards vs average26 matches
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market0.7 : 1.6total 2.3Attack/defence1.1 : 1.4total 2.5
Sarmiento Junin : River PlateMost likely scores
Market0-115%1-112%0-212%0-011%1-29%1-0—Attack/defence0-111%1-113%0-28%0-09%1-29%1-09%
MarketAttack/defence0-10-115%0-111%1-11-112%1-113%0-20-212%0-28%0-00-011%0-09%1-21-29%1-29%1-01-0—1-09%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 83%70% | 70% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 80%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68%71% | 71% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: no | 58%49% | 49% |
| 2 – River Plate win | 56%42% · Elo 42% | 42%· Elo 42% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 44%58% | 58% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42%51% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%46% | 46% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 32%29% | 29% |
| X – draw | 27%28% · Elo 31% | 28%· Elo 31% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%24% | 24% |
| 1 – Sarmiento Junin win | 17%30% · Elo 28% | 30%· Elo 28% |
Attack vs defence
Sarmiento Junin attack vs River Plate defenceattack1476defence1573−97 pts to the attack
River Plate attack vs Sarmiento Junin defenceattack1623defence1445+178 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over
We expect 8.0 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.567%63%
7.554%52%
8.541%40%
9.529%30%
Each team on its own
Sarmiento Juninwe expect 3.9, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 35%
River Platewe expect 4.0, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 55%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 59%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 21.5 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.548%56%
22.541%50%
23.534%45%
24.528%37%
Each team on its own
Sarmiento Juninwe expect 11.1, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 54%
River Platewe expect 11.2, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 44%
Referee: 21.8 fouls per match on average (24 matches in our data)−1.4 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.565%65%
3.543%41%
4.525%26%
5.513%14%
Each team on its own
Sarmiento Juninwe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
River Platewe expect 1.9, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 56%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sarmiento Junin: 19 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 12 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- River Plate concede a lot late on: 9 of 20 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Sarmiento Junin: 5 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- River Plate: 4 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Clausura, Group B
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sarmiento Junin | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20:17 | 19 |
| 9 | River Plate | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14:12 | 16 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?
River Plate are the favourites. Chances: Sarmiento Junin win 17%, draw 27%, River Plate win 56%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?
Expected goals: 2.3 (Sarmiento Junin 0.7, River Plate 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 40%. Most likely score: 0-1.
Will both teams score in Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?
The chance that both teams score is 42%.
When is Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?
The Primera LPF match kicks off 14 October 2026, 23:00 (UK time).
Who is the referee for Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?
The referee is Sebastian Zunino. In 26 matches in our data they showed 5.0 yellow cards a match on average.