Primera LPFMatchday 12

Aldosivi 1-3 Sarmiento Junin: prediction, tips and result

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Aldosivi
1-23-13-41-00-1
1-3Full time(half time 1-1)
Sarmiento Junin
1-31-12-01-42-0
Stadium:
Estadio Jose Maria Minella, Mar del Plata
Referee:
Luis Lobo Medina

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Corners: Over 8.5Lost56%

11.0 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 9.5 in the visitors', league average 8.7; over 8.5 corners in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 10 (51% of league matches)

Other tips

  • Fouls: Under 21.5Lost64%

    our numbers: 19.9 fouls against a league average of 22.7; under 21.5 fouls in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 10 (45% of league matches)

  • Offsides – Sarmiento Junin: Under 1.5Won64%

    Sarmiento Junin: 0.9 offsides a match, Aldosivi's opponents were caught offside 1.3 times on average, league average 1.7

  • Shots on Target: Over 7.5Won60%

    9.1 shots on target a match in the hosts' matches, 8.8 in the visitors', league average 7.9; over 7.5 shots on target in 6 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (51% of league matches)

For the brave
Corners: Over 9.5Lost44%

11.0 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 9.5 in the visitors', league average 8.7

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloAldosivi148937%34%Draw31%31%Sarmiento Junin158133%35%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS45%49%O2.538%43%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.1both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Sarmiento Junin2:0AldosiviL
  2. Sarmiento Junin2:0AldosiviL
  3. Aldosivi2:2Sarmiento JuninD
  4. Aldosivi1:2Sarmiento JuninL
  5. Sarmiento Junin3:0AldosiviL
Aldosivi's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.2league 8.7over 8.5: 56%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.lost · ended 7
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.6league 4.8under 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.lost · ended 8
RefereeL. Lobo Medina+0.1 yellow cards vs average25 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)74%X21:0coverageleague 72% · H2H 5/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.1 : 1.1total 2.2Attack/defence1.3 : 1.1total 2.4
Aldosivi : Sarmiento Junin
Most likely scores
Market1-114%0-012%1-012%0-111%2-18%2-0—Attack/defence1-113%0-010%1-011%0-110%2-18%2-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%0-00-012%0-010%1-01-012%1-011%0-10-111%0-110%2-12-18%2-18%2-02-0—2-08%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals82%78%78%
12 – no draw70%72%72%
1X – home team avoid defeat68%68%68%
Over 1.5 goals66%69%69%
X2 – away team avoid defeat64%60%60%
Under 2.5 goals62%57%57%
Both teams to score: no55%51%51%
Both teams to score: yes45%49%49%
Over 2.5 goals38%43%43%
1 – Aldosivi win37%40% · Elo 34%40%· Elo 34%
Under 1.5 goals34%31%31%
2 – Sarmiento Junin win33%32% · Elo 35%32%· Elo 35%
X – draw31%28% · Elo 31%28%· Elo 31%
Over 3.5 goals18%22%22%
Attack vs defence
Aldosivi attack vs Sarmiento Junin defenceattack1428defence1445−17 pts to the attack
Sarmiento Junin attack vs Aldosivi defenceattack1466defence1402+64 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over
We expect 8.5 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.573%62%
7.560%51%
8.547%40%
9.535%30%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Aldosiviwe expect 5.2, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 59%
Sarmiento Juninwe expect 3.6, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 48%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 70%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 30%
We expect 19.9 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
21.536%55%
22.530%50%
23.524%45%
24.519%37%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Aldosiviwe expect 9.9, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 40%
Sarmiento Juninwe expect 10.6, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 38%
Referee: 21.3 fouls per match on average (26 matches in our data)−1.3 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 63%close to the league averageunderover 37%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.559%65%
3.537%41%
4.520%27%
5.510%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Aldosiviwe expect 1.8, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Sarmiento Juninwe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 36%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Aldosivi matches average 11.0 corners (league 8.7) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
  • Aldosivi: 5 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
  • Sarmiento Junin: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Aldosivi

Sarmiento Junin

League position

Clausura, Group B

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Sarmiento Junin1161420:1719
14Aldosivi1222813:208
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin?

Aldosivi 1-3 Sarmiento Junin (half time 1-1).

Did the Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Corners: Over 8.5. The tip lost.

See also