Primera LPFMatchday 13
Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS41%41%O2.534%37%|exp. goals 1.4 : 0.8
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- San Lorenzo1:0Estudiantes L.P.L
- San Lorenzo1:1Estudiantes L.P.D
- Estudiantes L.P.1:1San LorenzoD
- San Lorenzo0:0Estudiantes L.P.D
- Estudiantes L.P.2:0San LorenzoW
Estudiantes L.P.'s record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss1.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.5league 8.8under 8.5: 53%Expected corners: 8.5 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.In this league 48% of matches end under 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.9league 4.8over 4.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 4.9 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 0.8total 2.0Attack/defence1.4 : 0.8total 2.2
Estudiantes L.P. : San LorenzoMost likely scores
Market1-014%1-114%0-014%2-09%0-110%2-1—Attack/defence1-016%1-113%0-012%2-011%0-19%2-19%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-014%1-016%1-11-114%1-113%0-00-014%0-012%2-02-09%2-011%0-10-110%0-19%2-12-1—2-19%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 85%83% | 83% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 75%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 69%71% | 71% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 66%64% | 64% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62%64% | 64% |
| Both teams to score: no | 59%59% | 59% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 56%50% | 50% |
| 1 – Estudiantes L.P. win | 44%50% · Elo 55% | 50%· Elo 55% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41%41% | 41% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 38%36% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34%37% | 37% |
| X – draw | 31%29% · Elo 27% | 29%· Elo 27% |
| 2 – San Lorenzo win | 25%21% · Elo 18% | 21%· Elo 18% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15%17% | 17% |
Attack vs defence
Estudiantes L.P. attack vs San Lorenzo defenceattack1561defence1549+12 pts to the attack
San Lorenzo attack vs Estudiantes L.P. defenceattack1407defence1537−130 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 56%close to the league averageunder 44%over
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.569%63%
7.556%52%
8.543%40%
9.531%30%
Each team on its own
Estudiantes L.P.we expect 5.5, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 62%
San Lorenzowe expect 3.0, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 35%
Foulsleague average
Over 22.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 41%over
We expect 24.2 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.566%56%
22.559%50%
23.552%45%
24.546%37%
Each team on its own
Estudiantes L.P.we expect 12.1, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 64%
San Lorenzowe expect 12.2, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 55%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.564%65%
3.542%41%
4.525%26%
5.512%14%
Each team on its own
Estudiantes L.P.we expect 2.0, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 59%
San Lorenzowe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- San Lorenzo: only 1 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- San Lorenzo score only 0.4 goals per game
- Estudiantes L.P. score a lot late on: 11 of 27 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Estudiantes L.P.: 8 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- San Lorenzo: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Clausura, Group A
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Estudiantes L.P. | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15:13 | 14 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5:11 | 14 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo?
Estudiantes L.P. are the favourites. Chances: Estudiantes L.P. win 44%, draw 31%, San Lorenzo win 25%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo?
Expected goals: 2.0 (Estudiantes L.P. 1.2, San Lorenzo 0.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 34%. Most likely score: 1-0.
Will both teams score in Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo?
The chance that both teams score is 41%.
When is Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo?
The Primera LPF match kicks off 18 October 2026, 22:00 (UK time).