Primera LPFMatchday 12

Gimnasia Mendoza 1-0 Newells Old Boys: prediction, tips and result

Monday 12 October · 22:30

Gimnasia Mendoza

3-0 2-2 0-2 0-0 0-3

1-0Full time(half time 0-0)

Newells Old Boys

0-0 1-0 1-1 1-1 0-0

Stadium:: Víctor Legrotaglie, Mendoza
Referee:: Juan Cruz Robledo

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: 12 October 2026, 11:40. A published tip never changes.

Main tip

Total Goals: Under 2.5Won64%

Gimnasia Mendoza: no goal in their last 3 league matches

Other tips

Offsides – Newells Old Boys: Over 2.5Won56%
Newells Old Boys: over 2.5 offsides in 4 of their last 10 league matches, Gimnasia Mendoza's opponents were caught offside over 2.5 times in 9 of 10 (23% of league matches); 1.9 offsides a match, Gimnasia Mendoza's opponents were caught offside 4.5 times on average, league average 1.6
Shots on Target – Gimnasia Mendoza: Under 4.5Won59%
Gimnasia Mendoza: 3.3 shots on target a match, Newells Old Boys's opponents had 4.0 on average, league average 4.5

For the brave

Total Goals: Under 1.5Won36%

Gimnasia Mendoza: no goal in their last 3 league matches

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloGimnasia Mendoza160941%43%Draw30%30%Newells Old Boys157629%26%favourite won

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS46%46%O2.539%40%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.0not both scored

H2Hlast meeting

21/03/202621/03/26Newells Old Boys1:0Gimnasia MendozaL

Gimnasia Mendoza's record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss1.0 goals per match

too few to read anything into

Cornersleague corners8.9league 8.8over 8.5: 53%Expected corners: 8.9 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end over 8.5 corners.lost · ended 8

Yellow cardsleague yellows4.7league 4.8over 4.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.lost · ended 4

RefereeJ. Cruz Robledofirst match in our data

Dutching(several bets at once)72%X21:0coverageleague 72% · H2H 1/1covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.2 : 1.0total 2.2Attack/defence1.3 : 1.0total 2.3

Gimnasia Mendoza : Newells Old Boys

Most likely scores

Market1-114%1-012%0-011%0-110%2-0—2-18%Attack/defence1-113%1-013%0-011%0-110%2-09%2-19%

MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%1-01-012%1-013%0-00-011%0-011%0-10-110%0-110%2-02-0—2-09%2-12-18%2-19%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Under 3.5 goals	81%81%	81%
1X – home team avoid defeat	71%73%	73%
12 – no draw	70%71%	71%
Over 1.5 goals	67%66%	66%
Our tip: Under 2.5 goals	61%60%	60%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	59%56%	56%
Both teams to score: no	54%54%	54%
Both teams to score: yes	46%46%	46%
1 – Gimnasia Mendoza win	41%44% · Elo 43%	44%· Elo 43%
Over 2.5 goals	39%40%	40%
Under 1.5 goals	33%34%	34%
X – draw	30%29% · Elo 30%	29%· Elo 30%
2 – Newells Old Boys win	29%27% · Elo 26%	27%· Elo 26%
Over 3.5 goals	19%19%	19%

Attack vs defence

Gimnasia Mendoza attack vs Newells Old Boys defenceattack1453defence1464−11 pts to the attack

Newells Old Boys attack vs Gimnasia Mendoza defenceattack1439defence1459−20 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Over 7.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 49%over

We expect 7.8 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

6.565%63%

7.552%52%

8.538%40%

9.527%31%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Gimnasia Mendozawe expect 4.2, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 41%

Newells Old Boyswe expect 3.5, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 46%

Foulsleague average

Over 22.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over

We expect 23.4 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

21.561%56%

22.554%50%

23.547%45%

24.540%36%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Gimnasia Mendozawe expect 12.1, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 64%

Newells Old Boyswe expect 11.3, league average 11.7 · chance of over 11.5: 45%

Offsidesleague average

Over 3.5 · 61%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 39%over

We expect 4.3 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.579%65%

3.561%41%

4.542%26%

5.526%14%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Gimnasia Mendozawe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 40%

Newells Old Boyswe expect 3.0, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 78%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Newells Old Boys score a lot late on: 9 of 21 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
Gimnasia Mendoza: newly promoted
Gimnasia Mendoza: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
Newells Old Boys: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form