Primera LPFMatchday 11

Newells Old Boys 0-0 Lanus: prediction, tips and result

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Newells Old Boys
2-10-01-11-11-0
0-0Full time(half time 0-0)
Lanus
2-13-01-00-11-1
Stadium:
Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, Rosario
Referee:
Dario Herrera

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards: Under 5.5Won59%

under 5.5 cards in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (61% of league matches); 4.3 cards a match in the hosts' matches, 3.8 in the visitors', league average 5.0

Other tips

  • Corners: Over 8.5Lost55%

    9.8 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 10.1 in the visitors', league average 8.7; over 8.5 corners in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 10 (51% of league matches)

  • Shots on Target – Lanus: Over 3.5Lost57%

    Lanus: 5.3 shots on target a match, Newells Old Boys's opponents had 4.3 on average, league average 3.4; our numbers for Lanus: 4.1 shots on target against a league average of 3.4

  • Offsides – Lanus: Over 1.5Lost60%

    our numbers for Lanus: 2.1 offsides against a league average of 1.7; Lanus: 2.1 offsides a match, Newells Old Boys's opponents were caught offside 2.2 times on average, league average 1.7

  • Fouls: Under 22.5Lost57%

    our numbers: 21.8 fouls against a league average of 22.7

For the brave
Cards: Under 4.5Won43%

under 4.5 cards in 5 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (43% of league matches); 4.3 cards a match in the hosts' matches, 3.8 in the visitors', league average 5.0

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloNewells Old Boys157635%36%Draw32%31%Lanus163933%33%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS42%47%O2.534%41%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.1not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Lanus5:0Newells Old BoysL
  2. Newells Old Boys2:1LanusW
  3. Lanus1:0Newells Old BoysL
  4. Newells Old Boys2:0LanusW
  5. Lanus1:2Newells Old BoysW
Newells Old Boys's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.1league 8.7over 8.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.lost · ended 8
Cardsleague cards5.2league 5.0under 5.5: 59%Expected cards: 5.2 in this match, 5.0 on average in the league.In this league 61% of matches end under 5.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 36%.won · ended 3
RefereeD. Herrera+0.7 cards vs average24 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)78%1X0:1coverageleague 83% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.0 : 1.0total 2.0Attack/defence1.2 : 1.1total 2.3
Newells Old Boys : Lanus
Most likely scores
Market1-115%0-014%1-012%0-112%2-17%1-2—Attack/defence1-114%0-010%1-011%0-111%2-18%1-28%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-115%1-114%0-00-014%0-010%1-01-012%1-011%0-10-112%0-111%2-12-17%2-18%1-21-2—1-28%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals85%80%80%
12 – no draw68%71%71%
1X – home team avoid defeat67%65%65%
Under 2.5 goals66%59%59%
X2 – away team avoid defeat65%64%64%
Over 1.5 goals62%67%67%
Both teams to score: no58%53%53%
Both teams to score: yes42%47%47%
Under 1.5 goals38%33%33%
1 – Newells Old Boys win35%36% · Elo 36%36%· Elo 36%
Over 2.5 goals34%41%41%
2 – Lanus win33%35% · Elo 33%35%· Elo 33%
X – draw32%29% · Elo 31%29%· Elo 31%
Over 3.5 goals15%20%20%
Attack vs defence
Newells Old Boys attack vs Lanus defenceattack1449defence1511−62 pts to the attack
Lanus attack vs Newells Old Boys defenceattack1537defence1454+83 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 8.3 in this match, 7.8 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.571%61%
7.558%50%
8.545%39%
9.533%30%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Newells Old Boyswe expect 4.5, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 45%
Lanuswe expect 4.1, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 57%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 21.8 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
21.550%55%
22.543%51%
23.536%46%
24.530%38%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Newells Old Boyswe expect 10.0, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 42%
Lanuswe expect 11.4, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 46%
Referee: 23.6 fouls per match on average (19 matches in our data)+0.5 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.566%65%
3.544%41%
4.526%26%
5.514%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Newells Old Boyswe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Lanuswe expect 2.1, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 60%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Lanus matches average only 3.8 cards (league 5.0) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Newells Old Boys: 16 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 11 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Newells Old Boys score a lot late on: 9 of 21 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
  • Newells Old Boys: 13 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
  • Lanus: 12 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Newells Old Boys

Lanus

League position

Clausura, Group A

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Lanus1262415:920
8Newells Old Boys1245311:917
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Newells Old Boys vs Lanus?

Newells Old Boys 0-0 Lanus (half time 0-0).

Did the Newells Old Boys vs Lanus tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards: Under 5.5. The tip won.

See also