Primera LPFMatchday 16
Independiente vs Dep. Riestra: prediction, tips and stats
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1.3:0.8Pre-match
- Referee:
- Juan Pafundi
Our tips
Tip in 1d 21hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS37%40%O2.536%34%|exp. goals 1.3 : 0.8H2Hlast 4 meetings
- Dep. Riestra2:0IndependienteL
- Dep. Riestra0:1IndependienteW
- Independiente0:0Dep. RiestraD
- Independiente3:1Dep. RiestraW
Independiente's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league
9.2league 9.2under 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 9.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league
4.7league 4.8under 4.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 20%.Referee
J. Pafundi−0.1 yellow cards vs average8 matchesPrediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 0.6total 2.1Attack/defence1.3 : 0.8total 2.1
Independiente : Dep. RiestraMost likely scores
Market1-017%2-014%1-112%0-013%0-1—2-18%Attack/defence1-016%2-011%1-113%0-013%0-110%2-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-017%1-016%2-02-014%2-011%1-11-112%1-113%0-00-013%0-013%0-10-1—0-110%2-12-18%2-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 85%78% | 78% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 83%84% | 84% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%70% | 70% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64%61% | 61% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 64%66% | 66% |
| Both teams to score: no | 63%60% | 60% |
| 1 – Independiente win | 59%48% · Elo 54% | 48%· Elo 54% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 41%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 37%40% | 40% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 36%39% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36%34% | 34% |
| X – draw | 26%30% · Elo 27% | 30%· Elo 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17%16% | 16% |
| 2 – Dep. Riestra win | 15%22% · Elo 19% | 22%· Elo 19% |
Attack vs defence
Independiente attack vs Dep. Riestra defenceattack1521defence1549−28 pts to the attack
Dep. Riestra attack vs Independiente defenceattack1397defence1538−141 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 61%close to the league averageunderover 39%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.552%53%
8.539%40%
9.528%31%
10.518%22%
Each team on its own
Independientewe expect 4.5, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 46%
Dep. Riestrawe expect 3.3, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 42%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 59%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 21.5 in this match, 22.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.548%54%
22.541%49%
23.534%43%
24.528%35%
Each team on its own
Independientewe expect 8.9, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 29%
Dep. Riestrawe expect 13.0, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 63%
Referee: 22.0 fouls per match on average (9 matches in our data)−1.0 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.569%65%
3.548%39%
4.530%24%
5.516%14%
Each team on its own
Independientewe expect 1.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Dep. Riestrawe expect 2.0, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 58%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Dep. Riestra11 matches without a winaway: 18Went on 71%League 72%Model 85%Record 26
- Dep. Riestra6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals awayWent on 53%League 62%Model 64%Record 27
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Dep. Riestra: only 2 of the last 10 league matches over 2.5 goals
- Dep. Riestra score only 0.4 goals per game (last 10 league matches)
- Independiente score only 0.7 goals per game (last 10 league matches)
- Dep. Riestra: no win in 11 league matches
- Dep. Riestra: only 6 pts in the last 10 league matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Independiente: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Dep. Riestra: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Clausura, Group A
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Independiente | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13:15 | 20 |
| 14 | Dep. Riestra | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10:17 | 12 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Independiente vs Dep. Riestra?
Independiente are the favourites. Chances: Independiente win 59%, draw 26%, Dep. Riestra win 15%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Independiente vs Dep. Riestra?
Expected goals: 2.1 (Independiente 1.5, Dep. Riestra 0.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 36%. Most likely score: 1-0.
Will both teams score in Independiente vs Dep. Riestra?
The chance that both teams score is 37%.
When is Independiente vs Dep. Riestra?
The Primera LPF match kicks off 6 November 2026, 22:15 (UK time).
Who is the referee for Independiente vs Dep. Riestra?
The referee is Juan Pafundi. In 8 matches in our data they showed 4.8 yellow cards a match on average.