Primera LPFMatchday 16
Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin: prediction, tips and stats
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1.5:0.9Pre-match
- Referee:
- Gonzalo Pereira
Our tips
Tip in 2d 7hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS44%46%O2.539%43%|exp. goals 1.5 : 0.9H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Sarmiento Junin1:0TigreL
- Sarmiento Junin0:0TigreD
- Tigre1:0Sarmiento JuninW
- Sarmiento Junin2:2TigreD
- Sarmiento Junin2:0TigreL
Tigre's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses1.6 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league
9.3league 9.2under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 9.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league
4.8league 4.8over 4.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 4.8 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.Referee
G. Pereira−0.8 yellow cards vs average1 matchPrediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 0.8total 2.2Attack/defence1.5 : 0.9total 2.4
Tigre : Sarmiento JuninMost likely scores
Market1-014%1-113%0-011%2-010%2-19%0-1—Attack/defence1-013%1-113%0-09%2-011%2-19%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-014%1-013%1-11-113%1-113%0-00-011%0-09%2-02-010%2-011%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 81%78% | 78% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 79%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67%69% | 69% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61%57% | 57% |
| Both teams to score: no | 56%54% | 54% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 51%48% | 48% |
| 1 – Tigre win | 50%52% · Elo 46% | 52%· Elo 46% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44%46% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39%43% | 43% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 33%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 29%27% · Elo 30% | 27%· Elo 30% |
| 2 – Sarmiento Junin win | 22%21% · Elo 24% | 21%· Elo 24% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Tigre attack vs Sarmiento Junin defenceattack1497defence1432+65 pts to the attack
Sarmiento Junin attack vs Tigre defenceattack1461defence1536−75 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 8.3 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.558%53%
8.545%40%
9.532%31%
10.522%22%
Each team on its own
Tigrewe expect 5.2, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 57%
Sarmiento Juninwe expect 3.3, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 42%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 59%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 21.5 in this match, 22.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.548%54%
22.541%49%
23.534%43%
24.528%35%
Each team on its own
Tigrewe expect 9.2, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 32%
Sarmiento Juninwe expect 12.6, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 58%
Referee: 20.0 fouls per match on average (1 match in our data)−3.0 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.554%65%
3.532%39%
4.517%24%
5.58%14%
Each team on its own
Tigrewe expect 1.2, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Sarmiento Juninwe expect 1.6, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Tigre: only 8 pts in the last 10 league matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Tigre: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Sarmiento Junin: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Clausura, Group B
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sarmiento Junin | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23:23 | 21 |
| 11 | Tigre | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15:16 | 16 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin?
Tigre are the favourites. Chances: Tigre win 50%, draw 29%, Sarmiento Junin win 22%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin?
Expected goals: 2.2 (Tigre 1.4, Sarmiento Junin 0.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 39%. Most likely score: 1-0.
Will both teams score in Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin?
The chance that both teams score is 44%.
When is Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin?
The Primera LPF match kicks off 7 November 2026, 01:00 (UK time).
Who is the referee for Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin?
The referee is Gonzalo Pereira. In 1 match in our data they showed 4.0 yellow cards a match on average.