Primera LPFMatchday 14
Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 19hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS46%50%O2.543%46%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Sarmiento Junin1:2Gimnasia L.P.W
- Sarmiento Junin0:1Gimnasia L.P.W
- Gimnasia L.P.0:0Sarmiento JuninD
- Sarmiento Junin1:1Gimnasia L.P.D
- Gimnasia L.P.0:0Sarmiento JuninD
Gimnasia L.P.'s record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses1.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.9league 8.8over 8.5: 52%Expected corners: 8.9 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end over 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.8league 4.8over 4.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 4.8 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 0.8total 2.4Attack/defence1.5 : 1.0total 2.5
Gimnasia L.P. : Sarmiento JuninMost likely scores
Market1-013%1-113%2-011%0-010%2-19%0-1—Attack/defence1-012%1-113%2-09%0-08%2-19%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-013%1-012%1-11-113%1-113%2-02-011%2-09%0-00-010%0-08%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 80%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 78%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%72% | 72% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: no | 54%50% | 50% |
| 1 – Gimnasia L.P. win | 53%49% · Elo 46% | 49%· Elo 46% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 46%51% | 51% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46%50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43%46% | 46% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30%28% | 28% |
| X – draw | 27%27% · Elo 30% | 27%· Elo 30% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22%25% | 25% |
| 2 – Sarmiento Junin win | 19%25% · Elo 24% | 25%· Elo 24% |
Attack vs defence
Gimnasia L.P. attack vs Sarmiento Junin defenceattack1515defence1445+70 pts to the attack
Sarmiento Junin attack vs Gimnasia L.P. defenceattack1476defence1466+10 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 8.3 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.571%63%
7.558%52%
8.545%40%
9.533%30%
Each team on its own
Gimnasia L.P.we expect 5.1, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 57%
Sarmiento Juninwe expect 3.5, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 45%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 22.0 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.551%56%
22.544%50%
23.538%45%
24.531%37%
Each team on its own
Gimnasia L.P.we expect 9.6, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 37%
Sarmiento Juninwe expect 12.4, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 57%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.563%65%
3.541%41%
4.524%26%
5.512%14%
Each team on its own
Gimnasia L.P.we expect 1.8, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Sarmiento Juninwe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sarmiento Junin: 19 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 12 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Gimnasia L.P.: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Sarmiento Junin: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Clausura, Group B
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sarmiento Junin | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20:17 | 19 |
| 6 | Gimnasia L.P. | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17:17 | 19 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin?
Gimnasia L.P. are the favourites. Chances: Gimnasia L.P. win 53%, draw 27%, Sarmiento Junin win 19%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin?
Expected goals: 2.4 (Gimnasia L.P. 1.6, Sarmiento Junin 0.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 43%. Most likely score: 1-0.
Will both teams score in Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin?
The chance that both teams score is 46%.
When is Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin?
The Primera LPF match kicks off 23 October 2026, 23:00 (UK time).