Primera LPFMatchday 16
Union de Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield: prediction, tips and stats
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1.5:1.2Pre-match
- Referee:
- Andres Gariano
Our tips
Tip in 1d 21hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS50%55%O2.544%51%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.2H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Velez Sarsfield2:2Union de Santa FeD
- Union de Santa Fe1:0Velez SarsfieldW
- Velez Sarsfield0:0Union de Santa FeD
- Union de Santa Fe2:1Velez SarsfieldW
- Velez Sarsfield4:0Union de Santa FeL
Union de Santa Fe's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league
9.1league 9.2under 9.5: 58%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 9.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellows
4.3league 4.8under 4.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 24%.Referee
A. Gariano−0.7 yellow cards vs average25 matchesPrediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.2total 2.5Attack/defence1.5 : 1.2total 2.7
Union de Santa Fe : Velez SarsfieldMost likely scores
Market1-114%1-010%0-010%0-19%2-18%2-0—1-2—Attack/defence1-112%1-010%0-0—0-18%2-19%2-07%1-27%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-112%1-01-010%1-010%0-00-010%0-0—0-10-19%0-18%2-12-18%2-19%2-02-0—2-07%1-21-2—1-27%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 77%71% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 70%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 67%70% | 70% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 63%57% | 57% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56%49% | 49% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50%55% | 55% |
| Both teams to score: no | 50%45% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44%51% | 51% |
| 1 – Union de Santa Fe win | 37%43% · Elo 30% | 43%· Elo 30% |
| 2 – Velez Sarsfield win | 33%31% · Elo 40% | 31%· Elo 40% |
| X – draw | 30%26% · Elo 31% | 26%· Elo 31% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29%25% | 25% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23%29% | 29% |
Attack vs defence
Union de Santa Fe attack vs Velez Sarsfield defenceattack1575defence1521+54 pts to the attack
Velez Sarsfield attack vs Union de Santa Fe defenceattack1551defence1449+102 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 50%over
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.563%53%
8.551%40%
9.538%31%
10.527%22%
Each team on its own
Union de Santa Fewe expect 4.7, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 50%
Velez Sarsfieldwe expect 4.3, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 61%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 21.2 in this match, 22.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.546%54%
22.539%49%
23.532%43%
24.526%35%
Each team on its own
Union de Santa Fewe expect 10.6, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 48%
Velez Sarsfieldwe expect 10.6, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 37%
Referee: 23.0 fouls per match on average (30 matches in our data)−0.1 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.563%65%
3.542%39%
4.524%24%
5.512%14%
Each team on its own
Union de Santa Fewe expect 1.9, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 54%
Velez Sarsfieldwe expect 1.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 41%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Matias PellegriniVelez Sarsfield3 matches with a goal or assist2 goals, 3 assistsWent on 33%Season 35%
League form
League position
Clausura, Group A
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 25:15 | 28 |
| 10 | Union de Santa Fe | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 22:24 | 18 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Union de Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Union de Santa Fe win 37%, draw 30%, Velez Sarsfield win 33%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Union de Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Union de Santa Fe 1.3, Velez Sarsfield 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 44%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Union de Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?
The chance that both teams score is 50%.
When is Union de Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?
The Primera LPF match kicks off 6 November 2026, 22:15 (UK time).
Who is the referee for Union de Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?
The referee is Andres Gariano. In 25 matches in our data they showed 4.6 yellow cards a match on average.