Primera LPFMatchday 12

Lanus 2-0 Velez Sarsfield: prediction, tips and result

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Lanus
0-11-03-02-10-0
2-0Full time(half time 0-0)
Velez Sarsfield
2-23-21-11-01-1
Stadium:
Estadio Ciudad de Lanus, Buenos Aires
Referee:
Sebastian Nicolas Martinez

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Won58%

3.6 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 3.8 in the visitors', league average 5.2; under 5.5 card points in 9 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (59% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Both Teams To Score: NoWon58%

    at least one side without a goal in 5 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings

  • Fouls – Velez Sarsfield: Under 11.5Lost64%

    our numbers for Velez Sarsfield: 10.4 fouls against a league average of 11.7; Velez Sarsfield: 10.6 fouls a match, Lanus's opponents committed 9.1 on average, league average 11.7

  • Shots on Target: Over 7.5Won59%

    over 7.5 shots on target in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 10 (52% of league matches)

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5Lost42%

under 4.5 card points in 9 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 10 (41% of league matches); 3.6 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 3.8 in the visitors', league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloLanus163948%34%Draw29%31%Velez Sarsfield168123%35%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS44%48%O2.538%43%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.0not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Velez Sarsfield0:1LanusW
  2. Velez Sarsfield3:0LanusL
  3. Lanus0:0Velez SarsfieldD
  4. Velez Sarsfield0:0LanusD
  5. Lanus0:1Velez SarsfieldL
Lanus's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses1.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.1league 8.8over 8.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end over 8.5 corners.won · ended 11
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.9league 4.8over 4.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 4.9 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.won · ended 5
RefereeS. Nicolas Martinez+1.0 yellow cards vs average21 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)79%O1.51:0coverageleague 76% · H2H 2/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 0.9total 2.3Attack/defence1.4 : 1.0total 2.4
Lanus : Velez Sarsfield
Most likely scores
Market1-014%1-114%0-012%2-010%2-19%0-1—Attack/defence1-012%1-113%0-010%2-09%2-19%0-19%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-014%1-012%1-11-114%1-113%0-00-012%0-010%2-02-010%2-09%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-19%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals81%78%78%
1X – home team avoid defeat77%73%73%
12 – no draw71%72%72%
Over 1.5 goals66%69%69%
Under 2.5 goals62%57%57%
Both teams to score: no56%52%52%
X2 – away team avoid defeat52%55%55%
1 – Lanus win48%45% · Elo 34%45%· Elo 34%
Both teams to score: yes44%48%48%
Over 2.5 goals38%43%43%
Under 1.5 goals34%31%31%
X – draw29%28% · Elo 31%28%· Elo 31%
2 – Velez Sarsfield win23%27% · Elo 35%27%· Elo 35%
Over 3.5 goals19%22%22%
Attack vs defence
Lanus attack vs Velez Sarsfield defenceattack1527defence1516+11 pts to the attack
Velez Sarsfield attack vs Lanus defenceattack1530defence1521+9 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 41%over
We expect 8.4 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.572%63%
7.559%52%
8.546%40%
9.534%31%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Lanuswe expect 5.0, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 55%
Velez Sarsfieldwe expect 3.7, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 20.8 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
21.543%56%
22.536%50%
23.530%45%
24.524%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Lanuswe expect 10.7, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 49%
Velez Sarsfieldwe expect 10.4, league average 11.7 · chance of over 11.5: 36%
Referee: 22.3 fouls per match on average (24 matches in our data)−0.8 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.569%65%
3.548%41%
4.529%26%
5.516%14%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Lanuswe expect 2.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 69%
Velez Sarsfieldwe expect 1.1, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 32%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Lanus matches average only 3.5 cards (league 5.1) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Velez Sarsfield matches average only 3.7 cards (league 5.1) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Velez Sarsfield: unbeaten in 11 matches
  • Velez Sarsfield: 18 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Lanus: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
  • Velez Sarsfield: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Lanus

Velez Sarsfield

League position

Clausura, Group A

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Velez Sarsfield1256117:1321
5Lanus1262415:920
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?

Lanus 2-0 Velez Sarsfield (half time 0-0).

Did the Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5. The tip won.

See also