Primera LPFMatchday 11

Velez Sarsfield 2-2 Platense: prediction, tips and result

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Velez Sarsfield
2-21-11-01-13-2
2-2Full time(half time 1-1)
Platense
0-11-21-10-12-1
Stadium:
Jose Amalfitani, Buenos Aires
Referee:
Sebastian Zunino

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Total Goals: Under 2.5Lost67%

under 2.5 goals in 5 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings

Other tips

  • Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Won56%

    under 5.5 card points in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (59% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

  • Fouls – Velez Sarsfield: Over 10.5Lost60%

    Platense's opponents committed over 10.5 in 9 of 10 (50% of league matches); Platense's opponents committed 13.8 fouls on average, league average 10.9

  • Offsides – Velez Sarsfield: Under 1.5Won59%

    our numbers for Velez Sarsfield: 1.4 offsides against a league average of 1.7; Velez Sarsfield: 1.0 offsides a match, Platense's opponents were caught offside 1.6 times on average, league average 1.7

  • Shots on Target: Over 7.5Won58%

    8.3 shots on target a match in the hosts' matches, 9.1 in the visitors', league average 7.9

For the brave
Correct Score: 1:0Lost16%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloVelez Sarsfield168150%55%Draw31%27%Platense158120%19%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS38%44%O2.533%40%|exp. goals 1.5 : 0.8both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Platense0:2Velez SarsfieldW
  2. Platense0:0Velez SarsfieldD
  3. Velez Sarsfield0:1PlatenseL
  4. Platense0:2Velez SarsfieldW
  5. Velez Sarsfield1:1PlatenseD
Velez Sarsfield's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss1.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.7league 8.7over 8.5: 50%Expected corners: 8.7 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.lost · ended 8
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.8league 4.8over 4.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 4.8 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 28%.lost · ended 2
RefereeS. Zunino+0.3 yellow cards vs average24 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)79%O1.51:0coverageleague 76% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 0.7total 2.0Attack/defence1.5 : 0.8total 2.3
Velez Sarsfield : Platense
Most likely scores
Market1-016%0-014%1-113%2-011%0-19%2-1—Attack/defence1-014%0-011%1-113%2-011%0-18%2-19%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-016%1-014%0-00-014%0-011%1-11-113%1-113%2-02-011%2-011%0-10-19%0-18%2-12-1—2-19%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals85%80%80%
1X – home team avoid defeat81%79%79%
12 – no draw70%73%73%
Our tip: Under 2.5 goals67%60%60%
Both teams to score: no62%56%56%
Over 1.5 goals61%67%67%
X2 – away team avoid defeat51%49%49%
1 – Velez Sarsfield win50%51% · Elo 55%51%· Elo 55%
Under 1.5 goals39%33%33%
Both teams to score: yes38%44%44%
Over 2.5 goals33%40%40%
X – draw31%28% · Elo 27%28%· Elo 27%
2 – Platense win20%21% · Elo 19%21%· Elo 19%
Over 3.5 goals15%20%20%
Attack vs defence
Velez Sarsfield attack vs Platense defenceattack1530defence1475+55 pts to the attack
Platense attack vs Velez Sarsfield defenceattack1442defence1528−86 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 8.3 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.571%62%
7.558%51%
8.545%40%
9.533%30%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Velez Sarsfieldwe expect 4.9, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 54%
Platensewe expect 3.6, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 48%
Foulsleague average
Over 22.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 24.0 in this match, 22.8 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
21.564%56%
22.558%51%
23.551%46%
24.544%38%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Velez Sarsfieldwe expect 11.7, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 60%
Platensewe expect 12.9, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 62%
Referee: 22.5 fouls per match on average (22 matches in our data)−0.8 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 47%over
We expect 3.8 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.573%65%
3.553%41%
4.534%26%
5.519%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Velez Sarsfieldwe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 41%
Platensewe expect 2.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 68%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Velez Sarsfield: unbeaten in 10 matches
  • Velez Sarsfield: 20 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Velez Sarsfield: 15 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Platense: 15 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Velez Sarsfield

Platense

League position

Clausura, Group A

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Velez Sarsfield1256117:1321
13Platense1225512:1811
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Velez Sarsfield vs Platense?

Velez Sarsfield 2-2 Platense (half time 1-1).

Did the Velez Sarsfield vs Platense tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Under 2.5. The tip lost.

See also