Primera LPFMatchday 13
Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 20hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS46%46%O2.543%43%|exp. goals 1.5 : 0.9
H2Hlast meeting
- Gimnasia Mendoza3:2Velez SarsfieldL
Velez Sarsfield's record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss5.0 goals per match
too few to read anything intoCornersleague corners9.0league 8.8over 8.5: 53%Expected corners: 9.0 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end over 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.6league 4.8under 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 0.8total 2.4Attack/defence1.5 : 0.9total 2.4
Velez Sarsfield : Gimnasia MendozaMost likely scores
Market1-013%1-113%2-011%0-010%2-19%0-1—Attack/defence1-013%1-113%2-010%0-010%2-19%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-013%1-013%1-11-113%1-113%2-02-011%2-010%0-00-010%0-010%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 81%78% | 78% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 78%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%69% | 69% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57%57% | 57% |
| 1 – Velez Sarsfield win | 54%52% · Elo 49% | 52%· Elo 49% |
| Both teams to score: no | 54%54% | 54% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 46%48% | 48% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46%46% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43%43% | 43% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 27%27% · Elo 29% | 27%· Elo 29% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22%22% | 22% |
| 2 – Gimnasia Mendoza win | 19%22% · Elo 22% | 22%· Elo 22% |
Attack vs defence
Velez Sarsfield attack vs Gimnasia Mendoza defenceattack1526defence1459+67 pts to the attack
Gimnasia Mendoza attack vs Velez Sarsfield defenceattack1448defence1513−65 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 8.0 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.567%63%
7.554%52%
8.540%40%
9.528%30%
Each team on its own
Velez Sarsfieldwe expect 4.7, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 50%
Gimnasia Mendozawe expect 3.3, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 42%
Foulsleague average
Over 22.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 23.3 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.560%56%
22.553%50%
23.546%45%
24.540%37%
Each team on its own
Velez Sarsfieldwe expect 10.6, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 48%
Gimnasia Mendozawe expect 12.8, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 60%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 48%over
We expect 3.8 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.573%65%
3.552%41%
4.533%26%
5.519%14%
Each team on its own
Velez Sarsfieldwe expect 2.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 67%
Gimnasia Mendozawe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Gimnasia Mendoza: 17 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 11 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Gimnasia Mendoza: newly promoted
- Velez Sarsfield: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Gimnasia Mendoza: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Clausura, Group A
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 17:13 | 21 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15:12 | 20 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
Velez Sarsfield are the favourites. Chances: Velez Sarsfield win 54%, draw 27%, Gimnasia Mendoza win 19%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
Expected goals: 2.4 (Velez Sarsfield 1.6, Gimnasia Mendoza 0.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 43%. Most likely score: 1-0.
Will both teams score in Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
The chance that both teams score is 46%.
When is Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
The Primera LPF match kicks off 18 October 2026, 00:00 (UK time).