Pro LeagueMatchday 9

Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Lommel SK: prediction, tips and stats

Saturday 24 October · 17:15

Oud-Heverlee Leuven

0-1 0-3 1-1 2-0 1-1

1.4:1.2Pre-match

Lommel SK

3-1 0-0 0-5 0-1 1-0

Our tips

Tip in 10d 11h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2EloOud-Heverlee Leuven156826%50%Draw30%26%Lommel SK149644%24%

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%O2.539%48%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.2

H2Hlast 5 meetings

08/02/202008/02/20Oud-Heverlee Leuven3:0Lommel SKW
06/12/201906/12/19Lommel SK3:2Oud-Heverlee LeuvenL
20/10/201920/10/19Lommel SK0:2Oud-Heverlee LeuvenW
22/09/201922/09/19Oud-Heverlee Leuven1:0Lommel SKW
26/04/201926/04/19Oud-Heverlee Leuven1:0Lommel SKW

Oud-Heverlee Leuven's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss2.4 goals per match

Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.2under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.

Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.7under 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.

Refereeawaiting appointment

Prediction: result and goals

Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Model0.9 : 1.3total 2.2Attack/defence1.4 : 1.2total 2.6

Oud-Heverlee Leuven : Lommel SK

Most likely scores

Model1-114%0-113%0-012%1-09%0-29%2-1—2-0—Attack/defence1-113%0-18%0-08%1-010%0-2—2-19%2-08%

ModelAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%0-10-113%0-18%0-00-012%0-08%1-01-09%1-010%0-20-29%0-2—2-12-1—2-19%2-02-0—2-08%

Outcome	Model	Attack/defence
Under 3.5 goals	81%74%	74%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	74%58%	58%
12 – no draw	70%73%	73%
Over 1.5 goals	66%73%	73%
Under 2.5 goals	62%52%	52%
1X – home team avoid defeat	56%69%	69%
2 – Lommel SK win	44%31% · Elo 24%	31%· Elo 24%
Over 2.5 goals	39%48%	48%
Under 1.5 goals	34%27%	27%
X – draw	30%27% · Elo 26%	27%· Elo 26%
1 – Oud-Heverlee Leuven win	26%43% · Elo 50%	43%· Elo 50%
Over 3.5 goals	19%26%	26%

Attack vs defence

Oud-Heverlee Leuven attack vs Lommel SK defenceattack1410defence1457−47 pts to the attack

Lommel SK attack vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven defenceattack1430defence1470−40 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 8.5 · 58%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 42%

We expect 8.1 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

7.556%61%

8.542%50%

9.530%40%

10.521%28%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Oud-Heverlee Leuvenwe expect 4.2, league average 4.8 · chance of over 4.5: 41%

Lommel SKwe expect 3.5, league average 4.0 · chance of over 3.5: 46%

Foulsleague average

Under 20.5 · 58%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 42%

We expect 19.7 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

19.549%63%

20.542%55%

21.535%47%

22.528%39%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Oud-Heverlee Leuvenwe expect 9.8, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 39%

Lommel SKwe expect 9.7, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 39%

Offsidesleague average

Under 3.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%

We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.5 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.566%62%

3.544%43%

4.526%28%

5.513%17%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Oud-Heverlee Leuvenwe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 50%

Lommel SKwe expect 1.7, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 49%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Oud-Heverlee Leuven score only 0.7 goals per game
Oud-Heverlee Leuven matches average 12.2 corners (league 10.2) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
Lommel SK: 15 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 9 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
Oud-Heverlee Leuven: 13 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
Lommel SK: 15 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

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