Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 31
Bahia vs Flamengo RJ: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS60%60%O2.558%56%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Flamengo RJ2:0BahiaL
- Bahia1:0Flamengo RJW
- Flamengo RJ1:0BahiaL
- Bahia0:2Flamengo RJL
- Flamengo RJ2:1BahiaL
Bahia's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.4under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.6league 4.7under 4.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.7total 3.0Attack/defence1.4 : 1.5total 2.9
Bahia : Flamengo RJMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-29%2-17%0-18%1-0—0-27%2-2—Attack/defence1-112%1-29%2-18%0-18%1-07%0-2—2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-21-29%1-29%2-12-17%2-18%0-10-18%0-18%1-01-0—1-07%0-20-27%0-2—2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%75% | 75% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 72%65% | 65% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65%66% | 66% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60%60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58%56% | 56% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 54%61% | 61% |
| 2 – Flamengo RJ win | 46%39% · Elo 51% | 39%· Elo 51% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42%44% | 44% |
| Both teams to score: no | 40%41% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35%34% | 34% |
| 1 – Bahia win | 28%36% · Elo 23% | 36%· Elo 23% |
| X – draw | 26%25% · Elo 26% | 25%· Elo 26% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
Bahia attack vs Flamengo RJ defenceattack1542defence1614−72 pts to the attack
Flamengo RJ attack vs Bahia defenceattack1666defence1504+162 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 9.6 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.561%55%
9.549%43%
10.537%32%
11.527%26%
Each team on its own
Bahiawe expect 5.0, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 39%
Flamengo RJwe expect 4.7, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 67%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 66%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 34%
We expect 22.4 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.541%59%
24.534%51%
25.528%45%
26.523%40%
Each team on its own
Bahiawe expect 11.3, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 36%
Flamengo RJwe expect 10.8, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 30%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 2.7 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.576%78%
2.552%55%
3.530%34%
4.515%20%
Each team on its own
Bahiawe expect 1.5, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Flamengo RJwe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Bahia matches average only 3.7 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Flamengo RJ concede a lot late on: 9 of 15 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Bahia: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Flamengo RJ: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 58:25 | 64 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44:36 | 49 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bahia vs Flamengo RJ?
Flamengo RJ are the favourites. Chances: Bahia win 28%, draw 26%, Flamengo RJ win 46%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Flamengo RJ?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Bahia 1.3, Flamengo RJ 1.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Flamengo RJ?
The chance that both teams score is 60%.
When is Bahia vs Flamengo RJ?
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 18 October 2026, 22:30 (UK time).