Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 30

Bahia 1-0 Mirassol: prediction, tips and result

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Bahia
3-23-22-11-20-1
1-0Full time(half time 1-0)
Mirassol
1-12-02-22-10-2
Stadium:
Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Referee:
Ramon Abatti Abel

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards – Bahia (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Won64%

Bahia: under 2.5 card points in 8 of their last 10 league matches, Mirassol's opponents collected under 2.5 card points in 9 of 10 (60% of league matches); 2.0 card points a match, Mirassol's opponents collected 1.4 card points on average, league average 2.4; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Both Teams To Score: YesLost58%

    goals at both ends in 6 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (56% of league matches)

  • Fouls: Under 24.5Lost63%

    22.1 fouls a match in the hosts' matches, 20.3 in the visitors', league average 25.0; under 24.5 fouls in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (49% of league matches)

  • Offsides – Bahia: Under 1.5Won65%

    our numbers for Bahia: 1.2 offsides against a league average of 1.5; Mirassol's opponents were caught offside 0.7 times on average, league average 1.5

  • Shots on Target – Mirassol: Over 3.5Lost55%

    Mirassol: 4.3 shots on target a match, Bahia's opponents had 5.3 on average, league average 3.9

For the brave
Correct Score: 1:1Lost11%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloBahia171457%43%Draw23%28%Mirassol171920%28%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%56%O2.560%55%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.1not both scored
H2Hlast 3 meetings
  1. Mirassol1:2BahiaW
  2. Mirassol5:1BahiaL
  3. Bahia1:1MirassolD
Bahia's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss3.7 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.3under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 8
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.5league 4.7under 4.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 4.5 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 19%.lost · ended 5
RefereeR. Abatti Abel+0.1 yellow cards vs average15 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)71%O2.51:1coverageleague 61% · H2H 3/3not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.0 : 1.1total 3.1Attack/defence1.8 : 1.1total 2.9
Bahia : Mirassol
Most likely scores
Market1-111%2-110%1-08%2-09%3-17%1-2—0-0—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-010%2-09%3-1—1-26%0-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-08%1-010%2-02-09%2-09%3-13-17%3-1—1-21-2—1-26%0-00-0—0-06%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals82%78%78%
1X – home team avoid defeat80%77%77%
12 – no draw77%76%76%
Under 3.5 goals62%67%67%
Over 2.5 goals60%55%55%
Both teams to score: yes59%56%56%
1 – Bahia win57%53% · Elo 43%53%· Elo 43%
X2 – away team avoid defeat43%48%48%
Both teams to score: no41%44%44%
Under 2.5 goals40%45%45%
Over 3.5 goals38%33%33%
X – draw23%24% · Elo 28%24%· Elo 28%
2 – Mirassol win20%23% · Elo 28%23%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals18%22%22%
Attack vs defence
Bahia attack vs Mirassol defenceattack1545defence1492+53 pts to the attack
Mirassol attack vs Bahia defenceattack1498defence1499−1 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 9.5 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.560%55%
9.548%43%
10.536%33%
11.526%26%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Bahiawe expect 5.7, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 50%
Mirassolwe expect 4.0, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 55%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 69%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 31%
We expect 22.9 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.537%51%
25.531%45%
26.526%40%
27.521%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Bahiawe expect 10.6, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 28%
Mirassolwe expect 11.2, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 34%
Referee: 27.7 fouls per match on average (22 matches in our data)+1.4 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.577%78%
2.553%55%
3.531%34%
4.516%20%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Bahiawe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Mirassolwe expect 1.6, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 45%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Bahia played 3 days ago
  • Mirassol: 4 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Bahia

Mirassol

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Bahia301310744:3649
15Mirassol30891334:4433
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Bahia vs Mirassol?

Bahia 1-0 Mirassol (half time 1-0).

Did the Bahia vs Mirassol tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards – Bahia (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5. The tip won.

See also