Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 29

Bragantino 1-1 Mirassol: prediction, tips and result

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Bragantino
1-22-31-11-20-1
1-1Full time(half time 0-0)
Mirassol
2-02-22-10-21-1
Stadium:
Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques, Braganca Paulista
Referee:
Raphael Claus

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Won68%

our numbers: 4.6 card points against a league average of 5.2; referee Raphael Claus averages 4.7 card points a match, league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Both Teams To Score: YesWon56%

    goals at both ends in 6 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (55% of league matches)

  • Fouls: Under 20.5Won66%

    our numbers: 18.6 fouls against a league average of 25.1; referee Raphael Claus averages 21.2 fouls a match, league average 25.1

  • Offsides – Bragantino: Under 1.5Won69%

    Bragantino: under 1.5 offsides in 8 of their last 10 league matches, Mirassol's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 9 of 10 (54% of league matches); 1.0 offsides a match, Mirassol's opponents were caught offside 0.7 times on average, league average 1.5

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Won35%

referee Raphael Claus averages 4.7 card points a match, league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloBragantino168160%39%Draw22%29%Mirassol171918%32%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%53%O2.558%51%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.1both scored
H2Hlast 3 meetings
  1. Mirassol0:1BragantinoW
  2. Mirassol1:1BragantinoD
  3. Bragantino1:0MirassolW
Bragantino's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses1.3 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.6league 10.3under 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.6 in this match, 10.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 14
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.2league 4.7under 4.5: 59%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.won · ended 0
RefereeR. Claus−0.9 yellow cards vs average15 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)71%U3.53:1coverageleague 81% · H2H 3/3covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.0 : 1.0total 3.0Attack/defence1.6 : 1.1total 2.7
Bragantino : Mirassol
Most likely scores
Market1-111%1-09%2-110%2-010%0-0—3-17%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-011%2-110%2-09%0-07%3-1—0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-01-09%1-011%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-010%2-09%0-00-0—0-07%3-13-17%3-1—0-10-1—0-17%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat82%75%75%
Over 1.5 goals81%75%75%
12 – no draw78%75%75%
Under 3.5 goals64%71%71%
1 – Bragantino win60%50% · Elo 39%50%· Elo 39%
Over 2.5 goals58%51%51%
Both teams to score: yes56%53%53%
Both teams to score: no44%47%47%
Under 2.5 goals42%50%50%
X2 – away team avoid defeat40%51%51%
Over 3.5 goals36%29%29%
X – draw22%26% · Elo 29%26%· Elo 29%
Under 1.5 goals19%25%25%
2 – Mirassol win18%25% · Elo 32%25%· Elo 32%
Attack vs defence
Bragantino attack vs Mirassol defenceattack1501defence1493+8 pts to the attack
Mirassol attack vs Bragantino defenceattack1501defence1515−14 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 9.3 in this match, 9.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.557%53%
9.545%42%
10.533%31%
11.524%24%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Bragantinowe expect 5.6, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 48%
Mirassolwe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 53%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 91%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 9%
We expect 18.6 in this match, 25.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.513%51%
25.59%45%
26.57%40%
27.55%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Bragantinowe expect 9.9, league average 12.6 · chance of over 12.5: 22%
Mirassolwe expect 11.1, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 34%
Referee: 21.2 fouls per match on average (29 matches in our data)−4.8 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.577%78%
2.554%55%
3.532%35%
4.516%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Bragantinowe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 31%
Mirassolwe expect 1.7, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 49%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Bragantino: only 7 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Bragantino: 4 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
  • Mirassol: 18 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Bragantino

Mirassol

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9Bragantino301171238:3540
15Mirassol30891334:4433
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Bragantino vs Mirassol?

Bragantino 1-1 Mirassol (half time 0-0).

Did the Bragantino vs Mirassol tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5. The tip won.

See also