Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 35
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG: prediction, tips and stats
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1.5:1.1Pre-match
Our tips
Tip in 1d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS55%52%O2.551%48%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.1H2Hlast 3 meetings
- Atletico-MG3:1MirassolL
- Atletico-MG1:0MirassolL
- Mirassol2:2Atletico-MGD
Mirassol's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners
10.9league 10.6over 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.9 in this match, 10.6 on average in the league.In this league 45% of matches end over 10.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league
4.4league 4.6under 4.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.6 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.Referee
awaiting appointmentPrediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.1total 2.7Attack/defence1.5 : 1.1total 2.6
Mirassol : Atletico-MGMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-010%2-19%2-09%0-07%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%2-19%2-09%0-08%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-010%1-011%2-12-19%2-19%2-02-09%2-09%0-00-07%0-08%0-10-1—0-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%73% | 73% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 74%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71%74% | 74% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55%52% | 52% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 51%54% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51%48% | 48% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49%52% | 52% |
| 1 – Mirassol win | 48%46% · Elo 45% | 46%· Elo 45% |
| Both teams to score: no | 45%48% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29%26% | 26% |
| X – draw | 26%27% · Elo 28% | 27%· Elo 28% |
| 2 – Atletico-MG win | 25%27% · Elo 28% | 27%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%27% | 27% |
Attack vs defence
Mirassol attack vs Atletico-MG defenceattack1495defence1534−39 pts to the attack
Atletico-MG attack vs Mirassol defenceattack1484defence1498−14 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 9.8 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.563%57%
9.551%45%
10.539%35%
11.529%26%
Each team on its own
Mirassolwe expect 5.5, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 46%
Atletico-MGwe expect 4.5, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 64%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 69%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 31%
We expect 22.0 in this match, 24.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.537%57%
24.531%48%
25.525%41%
26.520%36%
Each team on its own
Mirassolwe expect 10.5, league average 12.3 · chance of over 12.5: 28%
Atletico-MGwe expect 11.1, league average 12.4 · chance of over 12.5: 33%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 54%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.571%76%
2.546%54%
3.525%33%
4.511%20%
Each team on its own
Mirassolwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Atletico-MGwe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Atletico-MG matches average 12.6 corners (league 10.6) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Mirassol: 11 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Atletico-MG: 10 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44:40 | 50 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39:48 | 40 |
Frequently asked questions
Mirassol are the favourites. Chances: Mirassol win 48%, draw 26%, Atletico-MG win 25%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
Expected goals: 2.7 (Mirassol 1.6, Atletico-MG 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 1-1.
The chance that both teams score is 55%.
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 14 November 2026, 21:30 (UK time).