Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 32
Flamengo RJ vs Atletico-MG: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 12d 20hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS44%52%O2.557%57%|exp. goals 2.1 : 0.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Atletico-MG0:4Flamengo RJW
- Atletico-MG1:1Flamengo RJD
- Flamengo RJ1:0Atletico-MGW
- Flamengo RJ0:0Atletico-MGD
- Atletico-MG2:4Flamengo RJW
Flamengo RJ's record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.7league 10.4under 10.5: 50%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.6league 4.7under 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.3 : 0.7total 3.0Attack/defence2.1 : 0.9total 3.0
Flamengo RJ : Atletico-MGMost likely scores
Market2-014%1-011%3-011%2-19%1-18%3-1—Attack/defence2-011%1-010%3-08%2-110%1-110%3-17%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-014%2-011%1-01-011%1-010%3-03-011%3-08%2-12-19%2-110%1-11-18%1-110%3-13-1—3-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 92%85% | 85% |
| 12 – no draw | 83%79% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%79% | 79% |
| 1 – Flamengo RJ win | 75%64% · Elo 67% | 64%· Elo 67% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65%66% | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57%57% | 57% |
| Both teams to score: no | 56%48% | 48% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44%52% | 52% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43%43% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35%34% | 34% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 25%37% | 37% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%21% | 21% |
| X – draw | 17%21% · Elo 20% | 21%· Elo 20% |
| 2 – Atletico-MG win | 8%16% · Elo 13% | 16%· Elo 13% |
Attack vs defence
Flamengo RJ attack vs Atletico-MG defenceattack1666defence1538+128 pts to the attack
Atletico-MG attack vs Flamengo RJ defenceattack1496defence1614−118 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 9.5 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.559%55%
9.547%43%
10.535%32%
11.525%26%
Each team on its own
Flamengo RJwe expect 5.8, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 51%
Atletico-MGwe expect 3.9, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 53%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 22.7 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.542%59%
24.536%51%
25.530%45%
26.524%40%
Each team on its own
Flamengo RJwe expect 11.0, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 32%
Atletico-MGwe expect 11.4, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 36%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 51%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.574%78%
2.549%55%
3.527%34%
4.513%20%
Each team on its own
Flamengo RJwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Atletico-MGwe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Flamengo RJ concede a lot late on: 9 of 15 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Flamengo RJ: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Atletico-MG: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 58:25 | 64 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41:35 | 47 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Flamengo RJ vs Atletico-MG?
Flamengo RJ are the favourites. Chances: Flamengo RJ win 75%, draw 17%, Atletico-MG win 8%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo RJ vs Atletico-MG?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Flamengo RJ 2.3, Atletico-MG 0.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 57%. Most likely score: 2-0.
Will both teams score in Flamengo RJ vs Atletico-MG?
The chance that both teams score is 44%.
When is Flamengo RJ vs Atletico-MG?
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 26 October 2026, 23:00 (UK time).