Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 31
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%52%O2.553%55%|exp. goals 2.0 : 0.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Coritiba2:0Atletico-MGL
- Atletico-MG1:2CoritibaL
- Coritiba1:2Atletico-MGW
- Coritiba0:1Atletico-MGW
- Atletico-MG2:2CoritibaD
Atletico-MG's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.8league 10.4over 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.8 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 43% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.5league 4.7under 4.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 4.5 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.0 : 0.8total 2.8Attack/defence2.0 : 0.9total 2.9
Atletico-MG : CoritibaMost likely scores
Market2-012%1-011%1-111%2-110%3-08%3-1—Attack/defence2-011%1-011%1-110%2-110%3-07%3-17%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-012%2-011%1-01-011%1-011%1-11-111%1-110%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-08%3-07%3-13-1—3-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 84%84% | 84% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%78% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%78% | 78% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69%67% | 67% |
| 1 – Atletico-MG win | 63%62% · Elo 56% | 62%· Elo 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53%55% | 55% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: no | 50%48% | 48% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47%45% | 45% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 36%38% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31%33% | 33% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%22% | 22% |
| X – draw | 21%22% · Elo 25% | 22%· Elo 25% |
| 2 – Coritiba win | 15%16% · Elo 19% | 16%· Elo 19% |
Attack vs defence
Atletico-MG attack vs Coritiba defenceattack1496defence1390+106 pts to the attack
Coritiba attack vs Atletico-MG defenceattack1420defence1538−118 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 9.4 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.559%55%
9.546%43%
10.535%32%
11.525%26%
Each team on its own
Atletico-MGwe expect 6.3, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 59%
Coritibawe expect 3.4, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 44%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 22.9 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.544%59%
24.537%51%
25.531%45%
26.526%40%
Each team on its own
Atletico-MGwe expect 11.5, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 38%
Coritibawe expect 11.1, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 33%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 50%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 2.7 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.575%78%
2.550%55%
3.529%34%
4.514%20%
Each team on its own
Atletico-MGwe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Coritibawe expect 1.4, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Coritiba concede 2.1 goals per game
- Coritiba: newly promoted
- Atletico-MG: 6 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Coritiba: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41:35 | 47 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38:48 | 39 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Atletico-MG are the favourites. Chances: Atletico-MG win 63%, draw 21%, Coritiba win 15%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Atletico-MG 2.0, Coritiba 0.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 2-0.
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
The chance that both teams score is 50%.
When is Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 17 October 2026, 22:30 (UK time).