Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 32
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%52%O2.544%48%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.1
H2Hlast 3 meetings
- Sao Paulo1:0MirassolL
- Mirassol3:0Sao PauloW
- Sao Paulo0:2MirassolW
Mirassol's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.8league 10.4over 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.8 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 43% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.6league 4.7under 4.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.1total 2.5Attack/defence1.5 : 1.1total 2.6
Mirassol : Sao PauloMost likely scores
Market1-114%1-011%0-010%2-19%2-0—0-18%Attack/defence1-113%1-011%0-08%2-19%2-08%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%1-01-011%1-011%0-00-010%0-08%2-12-19%2-19%2-02-0—2-08%0-10-18%0-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 77%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 72%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71%73% | 73% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 58%54% | 54% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: no | 50%48% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44%48% | 48% |
| 1 – Mirassol win | 43%46% · Elo 48% | 46%· Elo 48% |
| X – draw | 29%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
| 2 – Sao Paulo win | 29%27% · Elo 25% | 27%· Elo 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29%27% | 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23%26% | 26% |
Attack vs defence
Mirassol attack vs Sao Paulo defenceattack1493defence1538−45 pts to the attack
Sao Paulo attack vs Mirassol defenceattack1481defence1495−14 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 9.2 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.556%55%
9.544%43%
10.532%32%
11.523%26%
Each team on its own
Mirassolwe expect 4.7, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 34%
Sao Paulowe expect 4.3, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 61%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 59%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 23.5 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.548%59%
24.541%51%
25.535%45%
26.529%40%
Each team on its own
Mirassolwe expect 11.9, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 41%
Sao Paulowe expect 11.4, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 37%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 51%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 2.7 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.574%78%
2.549%55%
3.528%34%
4.513%20%
Each team on its own
Mirassolwe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Sao Paulowe expect 1.0, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 28%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sao Paulo matches average 12.7 corners (league 10.4) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Mirassol: 8 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Sao Paulo: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 35:35 | 39 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 34:44 | 33 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?
Mirassol are the favourites. Chances: Mirassol win 43%, draw 29%, Sao Paulo win 29%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Mirassol 1.4, Sao Paulo 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 44%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?
The chance that both teams score is 50%.
When is Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 24 October 2026, 20:30 (UK time).