1. DivisionMatchday 12
Esbjerg vs Fredericia: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 10d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%O2.556%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Fredericia1:0EsbjergL
- Fredericia1:1EsbjergD
- Esbjerg0:2FredericiaL
- Esbjerg0:3FredericiaL
- Fredericia4:0EsbjergL
Esbjerg's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 9.9over 9.5: 60%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.9league 3.2under 3.5: 67%Expected yellow cards: 2.9 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.0 : 1.8total 2.8Attack/defence1.4 : 1.5total 2.9
Esbjerg : FredericiaMost likely scores
Model1-112%0-110%1-210%0-210%2-1—1-0—0-07%Attack/defence1-112%0-18%1-29%0-26%2-18%1-07%0-0—
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%0-10-110%0-18%1-21-210%1-29%0-20-210%0-26%2-12-1—2-18%1-01-0—1-07%0-00-07%0-0—
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 80%65% | 65% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%75% | 75% |
| 2 – Fredericia win | 55%40% · Elo 56% | 40%· Elo 56% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 46%60% | 60% |
| X – draw | 25%25% · Elo 24% | 25%· Elo 24% |
| 1 – Esbjerg win | 21%35% · Elo 20% | 35%· Elo 20% |
Attack vs defence
Esbjerg attack vs Fredericia defenceattack1521defence1527−6 pts to the attack
Fredericia attack vs Esbjerg defenceattack1537defence1443+94 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 9.6 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.561%53%
9.549%45%
10.537%37%
11.527%28%
Each team on its own
Esbjergwe expect 4.1, league average 4.6 · chance of over 4.5: 38%
Fredericiawe expect 5.9, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 68%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 17.4 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.539%50%
19.532%45%
20.525%43%
21.520%40%
Each team on its own
Esbjergwe expect 8.4, league average 9.5 · chance of over 9.5: 34%
Fredericiawe expect 8.7, league average 10.4 · chance of over 10.5: 27%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.560%62%
3.538%42%
4.521%28%
5.510%18%
Each team on its own
Esbjergwe expect 1.6, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Fredericiawe expect 1.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Esbjerg concede 2.2 goals per game
- Fredericia concede only 0.6 goals per game
- Esbjerg: no win in 8 matches
- Esbjerg: only 6 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Fredericia: newly promoted
- Esbjerg: 8 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Fredericia: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Fredericia | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 14:6 | 17 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13:22 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Esbjerg vs Fredericia?
Fredericia are the favourites. Chances: Esbjerg win 21%, draw 25%, Fredericia win 55%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Esbjerg vs Fredericia?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Esbjerg 1.0, Fredericia 1.8). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Esbjerg vs Fredericia?
The 1. Division match kicks off 24 October 2026, 12:30 (UK time).