ChampionshipMatchday 10
Burnley 2-2 Charlton: prediction, tips and result
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Offsides: Over 3.5Lost61%
our numbers: 4.2 offsides against a league average of 3.7; over 3.5 offsides in 7 of the hosts' last 9 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 9 (49% of league matches)
For the brave
Offsides: Over 4.5Lost42%
our numbers: 4.2 offsides against a league average of 3.7; 5.2 offsides a match in the hosts' matches, 3.3 in the visitors', league average 3.7
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS49%52%O2.550%49%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.1both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Charlton0:3BurnleyW
- Burnley4:0CharltonW
- Charlton0:3BurnleyW
- Burnley3:0CharltonW
- Charlton0:1BurnleyW
Burnley's record: 5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.4under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 14
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.8over 3.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.lost · ended 3
Refereeawaiting appointment
Dutching(several bets at once)69%11:1coverageleague 58% · H2H 5/5not covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.8 : 0.9total 2.7Attack/defence1.6 : 1.1total 2.7
Burnley : CharltonMost likely scores
Market1-111%1-012%2-011%2-110%0-08%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-011%2-09%2-110%0-07%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-01-012%1-011%2-02-011%2-09%2-12-110%2-110%0-00-08%0-07%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 83%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72%73% | 73% |
| 1 – Burnley win | 60%50% · Elo 66% | 50%· Elo 66% |
| Both teams to score: no | 51%48% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%49% | 49% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50%51% | 51% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49%52% | 52% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 40%50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28%27% | 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24%26% | 26% |
| X – draw | 23%26% · Elo 20% | 26%· Elo 20% |
| 2 – Charlton win | 17%25% · Elo 14% | 25%· Elo 14% |
Attack vs defence
Burnley attack vs Charlton defenceattack1512defence1467+45 pts to the attack
Charlton attack vs Burnley defenceattack1407defence1469−62 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.557%56%
8.544%40%
9.532%30%
10.522%20%
Each team on its own
Burnleywe expect 5.0, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 54%
Charltonwe expect 3.4, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 45%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 20.1 in this match, 20.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.553%56%
20.545%46%
21.538%36%
22.531%32%
Each team on its own
Burnleywe expect 9.7, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 49%
Charltonwe expect 10.5, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 47%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 61%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 39%over
We expect 4.2 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.579%66%
3.561%49%
4.542%31%
5.526%18%
Each team on its own
Burnleywe expect 1.7, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
Charltonwe expect 2.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 71%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Burnley: newly promoted
- Burnley played 3 days ago
- Charlton played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10:13 | 14 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15:19 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Burnley vs Charlton?
Burnley 2-2 Charlton (half time 1-0).
Did the Burnley vs Charlton tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Offsides: Over 3.5. The tip lost.