ChampionshipMatchday 9

Watford 0-4 Burnley: prediction, tips and result

·

Watford
0-20-12-11-20-1
0-4Full time(half time 0-3)
Burnley
1-11-31-11-21-1
Stadium:
Vicarage Road, Watford
Referee:
Andrew Madley

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Both Teams To Score: YesLost59%

goals at both ends in 5 of the hosts' last 8 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 8 (58% of league matches)

Other tips

  • Cards – Watford (yellow=1, red=2): Over 1.5Lost56%

    Watford: 2.9 card points a match, Burnley's opponents collected 2.1 card points on average, league average 1.7; over 1.5 card points in 6 of their last 8 league matches, Burnley's opponents collected over 1.5 card points in 6 of 8 (54% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

  • Offsides – Watford: Over 1.5Won66%

    our numbers for Watford: 2.4 offsides against a league average of 1.9

  • Fouls – Burnley: Under 10.5Won60%

    our numbers for Burnley: 9.9 fouls against a league average of 10.6

  • Shots on Target – Watford: Under 4.5Lost59%

    Watford: under 4.5 shots on target in 7 of their last 8 league matches (57% of league matches)

For the brave
Correct Score: 1:1Lost12%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloWatford148533%22%Draw26%25%Burnley171041%53%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%54%O2.555%49%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.2not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Watford1:2BurnleyL
  2. Burnley2:1WatfordL
  3. Burnley1:1WatfordD
  4. Watford1:0BurnleyW
  5. Watford1:2BurnleyL
Watford's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.2league 10.4under 10.5: 56%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 8
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.8over 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.lost · ended 0
RefereeA. Madley−0.3 yellow cards vs average36 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)73%X22:1coverageleague 68% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.5total 2.9Attack/defence1.4 : 1.2total 2.7
Watford : Burnley
Most likely scores
Market1-112%1-07%1-29%2-18%0-18%0-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-010%1-28%2-19%0-18%0-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-07%1-010%1-21-29%1-28%2-12-18%2-19%0-10-18%0-18%0-00-0—0-08%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals79%74%74%
12 – no draw74%73%73%
Under 3.5 goals67%73%73%
X2 – away team avoid defeat67%59%59%
1X – home team avoid defeat59%68%68%
Our tip: Both teams to score: yes59%54%54%
Over 2.5 goals55%49%49%
Under 2.5 goals45%51%51%
2 – Burnley win41%32% · Elo 53%32%· Elo 53%
Both teams to score: no41%46%46%
1 – Watford win33%42% · Elo 22%42%· Elo 22%
Over 3.5 goals33%27%27%
X – draw26%27% · Elo 25%27%· Elo 25%
Under 1.5 goals21%26%26%
Attack vs defence
Watford attack vs Burnley defenceattack1438defence1462−24 pts to the attack
Burnley attack vs Watford defenceattack1495defence1479+16 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 56%close to the league averageunder 44%over
We expect 8.1 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.569%67%
7.556%55%
8.542%39%
9.530%29%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Watfordwe expect 4.2, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 41%
Burnleywe expect 3.9, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 20.0 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.551%57%
20.544%47%
21.537%37%
22.530%33%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Watfordwe expect 9.5, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 47%
Burnleywe expect 9.9, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 41%
Referee: 21.2 fouls per match on average (33 matches in our data)+0.7 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 3.9 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.575%66%
3.555%48%
4.536%31%
5.521%19%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Watfordwe expect 2.4, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 66%
Burnleywe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 49%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Burnley: no win in 8 matches
  • Watford score a lot late on: 7 of 17 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
  • Burnley: newly promoted
  • Watford: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Burnley: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Watford

Burnley

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
21Burnley1015415:198
22Watford102268:198
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Watford vs Burnley?

Watford 0-4 Burnley (half time 0-3).

Did the Watford vs Burnley tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Both Teams To Score: Yes. The tip lost.

See also