ChampionshipMatchday 8
Burnley 1-1 Derby: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Turf Moor, Burnley
- Referee:
- Steve Martin
Our tips
Main tip
Both Teams To Score: YesWon55%
goals at both ends in 7 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 3 of the visitors' last 7 (57% of league matches)
For the brave
Correct Score: 1:1Won12%
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%56%O2.553%52%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.2both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Derby0:0BurnleyD
- Burnley0:0DerbyD
- Burnley4:1DerbyW
- Derby0:0BurnleyD
- Burnley2:0DerbyW
Burnley's record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses1.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.5under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.5 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 10
Cardsleague cards4.1league 3.9over 3.5: 57%Expected cards: 4.1 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 3.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.won · ended 6
RefereeS. Martin+1.1 cards vs average2 matches
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 1.1total 2.8Attack/defence1.5 : 1.2total 2.8
Burnley : DerbyMost likely scores
Market1-112%2-110%1-010%2-09%0-1—1-2—0-07%Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%2-08%0-18%1-27%0-0—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%2-12-110%2-19%1-01-010%1-09%2-02-09%2-08%0-10-1—0-18%1-21-2—1-27%0-00-07%0-0—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 76%70% | 70% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69%70% | 70% |
| Our tip: Both teams to score: yes | 55%56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53%52% | 52% |
| 1 – Burnley win | 51%44% · Elo 59% | 44%· Elo 59% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 48%56% | 56% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47%48% | 48% |
| Both teams to score: no | 45%44% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31%30% | 30% |
| X – draw | 25%26% · Elo 23% | 26%· Elo 23% |
| 2 – Derby win | 23%30% · Elo 18% | 30%· Elo 18% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Burnley attack vs Derby defenceattack1504defence1483+21 pts to the attack
Derby attack vs Burnley defenceattack1483defence1459+24 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Derby: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Burnley: no win in 7 matches
- Derby: only 7 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Burnley: newly promoted
- Burnley: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Derby: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15:19 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:15 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Burnley vs Derby?
Burnley 1-1 Derby (half time 1-0).
Did the Burnley vs Derby tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Both Teams To Score: Yes. The tip won.