ChampionshipMatchday 11
Burnley vs Wolves: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 2d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%57%O2.554%53%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Burnley1:1WolvesD
- Wolves2:3BurnleyW
- Burnley1:1WolvesD
- Wolves1:0BurnleyL
- Burnley1:0WolvesW
Burnley's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.4under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.5total 2.8Attack/defence1.5 : 1.3total 2.8
Burnley : WolvesMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-29%2-18%1-07%0-18%2-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-28%2-19%1-09%0-18%2-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%1-21-29%1-28%2-12-18%2-19%1-01-07%1-09%0-10-18%0-18%2-02-0—2-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68%69% | 69% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 68%60% | 60% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 59%66% | 66% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58%57% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54%53% | 53% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46%47% | 47% |
| Both teams to score: no | 42%43% | 43% |
| 2 – Wolves win | 41%34% · Elo 42% | 34%· Elo 42% |
| 1 – Burnley win | 32%40% · Elo 31% | 40%· Elo 31% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 27%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Burnley attack vs Wolves defenceattack1512defence1510+2 pts to the attack
Wolves attack vs Burnley defenceattack1540defence1469+71 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.557%56%
8.544%40%
9.532%31%
10.522%20%
Each team on its own
Burnleywe expect 4.6, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 48%
Wolveswe expect 3.7, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 50%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 20.6 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.556%56%
20.549%46%
21.542%37%
22.535%33%
Each team on its own
Burnleywe expect 9.8, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 51%
Wolveswe expect 10.9, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 52%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 62%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 39%over
We expect 4.3 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.579%66%
3.562%50%
4.543%32%
5.526%19%
Each team on its own
Burnleywe expect 2.0, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 58%
Wolveswe expect 2.4, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 67%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Burnley: newly promoted
- Wolves: newly promoted
- Burnley played 3 days ago
- Wolves played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16:14 | 14 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15:19 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Burnley vs Wolves?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Burnley win 32%, draw 27%, Wolves win 41%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Wolves?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Burnley 1.3, Wolves 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Wolves?
The chance that both teams score is 58%.
When is Burnley vs Wolves?
The Championship match kicks off 16 October 2026, 20:00 (UK time).