ChampionshipMatchday 10
QPR vs Derby: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 12h 44mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%54%O2.553%50%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- QPR2:3DerbyL
- Derby1:0QPRL
- QPR4:0DerbyW
- Derby2:0QPRL
- QPR1:0DerbyW
QPR's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.4under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.8 : 1.0total 2.8Attack/defence1.5 : 1.2total 2.7
QPR : DerbyMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-010%2-010%2-110%0-1—0-07%Attack/defence1-113%1-010%2-08%2-19%0-18%0-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-010%1-010%2-02-010%2-08%2-12-110%2-19%0-10-1—0-18%0-00-07%0-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 81%72% | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%74% | 74% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69%72% | 72% |
| 1 – QPR win | 57%45% · Elo 41% | 45%· Elo 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53%54% | 54% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: no | 47%47% | 47% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 43%55% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31%28% | 28% |
| X – draw | 24%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%26% | 26% |
| 2 – Derby win | 19%28% · Elo 31% | 28%· Elo 31% |
Attack vs defence
QPR attack vs Derby defenceattack1505defence1493+12 pts to the attack
Derby attack vs QPR defenceattack1475defence1487−12 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 8.1 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.555%56%
8.542%40%
9.530%31%
10.520%20%
Each team on its own
QPRwe expect 5.0, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 55%
Derbywe expect 3.2, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 19.6 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.549%56%
20.541%46%
21.534%37%
22.528%33%
Each team on its own
QPRwe expect 8.4, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 34%
Derbywe expect 11.2, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 55%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.569%66%
3.548%50%
4.530%31%
5.516%19%
Each team on its own
QPRwe expect 1.7, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
Derbywe expect 1.9, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- QPR4 draws in a rowat home: 1Went on 28%League 29%Model 24%Record 8
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Derby: only 6 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 12 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- QPR: 5 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Derby: 4 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11:8 | 14 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:15 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win QPR vs Derby?
QPR are the favourites. Chances: QPR win 57%, draw 24%, Derby win 19%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in QPR vs Derby?
Expected goals: 2.8 (QPR 1.8, Derby 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Derby?
The chance that both teams score is 53%.
When is QPR vs Derby?
The Championship match kicks off 14 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).