ChampionshipMatchday 9

Derby 1-1 Wrexham: prediction, tips and result

·

Derby
2-00-30-11-21-1
1-1Full time(half time 1-0)
Wrexham
2-10-61-10-03-0
Stadium:
Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Referee:
Matt Donohue

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Yellow Cards: Over 3.5Won55%

referee Matt Donohue averages 4.2 yellow cards a match, league average 3.8

Other tips

  • Offsides – Wrexham: Under 1.5Lost60%

    Wrexham: under 1.5 offsides in 7 of their last 8 league matches, Derby's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 5 of 8 (50% of league matches); 1.0 offsides a match, Derby's opponents were caught offside 1.5 times on average, league average 1.8

  • Shots on Target – Derby: Under 4.5Won61%

    Derby: 2.5 shots on target a match, league average 4.4

For the brave
Yellow Cards: Over 4.5Won36%

referee Matt Donohue averages 4.2 yellow cards a match, league average 3.8

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloDerby155332%38%Draw28%28%Wrexham157940%34%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%54%O2.546%49%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.2both scored
H2Hlast 2 meetings
  1. Derby1:2WrexhamL
  2. Wrexham1:1DerbyD
Derby's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.5 goals per match
too few to read anything into
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.4under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 9
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.8over 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.won · ended 5
RefereeM. Donohue+0.5 yellow cards vs average32 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)70%1X0:1coverageleague 79% · H2H 1/2covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.3total 2.5Attack/defence1.5 : 1.2total 2.7
Derby : Wrexham
Most likely scores
Market1-114%0-110%1-09%0-09%1-29%2-1—2-0—Attack/defence1-113%0-18%1-010%0-07%1-2—2-19%2-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%0-10-110%0-18%1-01-09%1-010%0-00-09%0-07%1-21-29%1-2—2-12-1—2-19%2-02-0—2-08%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals75%73%73%
Over 1.5 goals73%74%74%
12 – no draw72%74%74%
X2 – away team avoid defeat68%57%57%
1X – home team avoid defeat60%70%70%
Under 2.5 goals54%51%51%
Both teams to score: yes52%54%54%
Both teams to score: no48%46%46%
Over 2.5 goals46%49%49%
2 – Wrexham win40%31% · Elo 34%31%· Elo 34%
1 – Derby win32%43% · Elo 38%43%· Elo 38%
X – draw28%27% · Elo 28%27%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals27%26%26%
Over 3.5 goals25%27%27%
Attack vs defence
Derby attack vs Wrexham defenceattack1480defence1492−12 pts to the attack
Wrexham attack vs Derby defenceattack1497defence1493+4 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 55%close to the league averageunder 45%over
We expect 8.1 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.569%67%
7.555%55%
8.542%39%
9.530%29%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Derbywe expect 4.1, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Wrexhamwe expect 4.0, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 21.3 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.561%57%
20.554%47%
21.547%37%
22.540%33%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Derbywe expect 10.2, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 56%
Wrexhamwe expect 10.7, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 50%
Referee: 20.5 fouls per match on average (32 matches in our data)+0.8 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.569%66%
3.549%48%
4.530%31%
5.516%19%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Derbywe expect 2.2, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 64%
Wrexhamwe expect 1.4, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 40%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

League form

Derby

Wrexham

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
16Wrexham1025311:1511
23Derby91358:156
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Derby vs Wrexham?

Derby 1-1 Wrexham (half time 1-0).

Did the Derby vs Wrexham tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Yellow Cards: Over 3.5. The tip won.

See also