ChampionshipMatchday 9
Southampton 1-0 Portsmouth: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
- Referee:
- Adam Herczeg
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Match Result: SouthamptonWon62%
Southampton: won 4 of their last 4 league matches at home
Other tips
- Both Teams To Score: YesLost58%
goals at both ends in 8 of the hosts' last 8 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 7 (58% of league matches)
- Fouls – Portsmouth: Over 10.5Won61%
our numbers for Portsmouth: 11.8 fouls against a league average of 10.5
- Offsides – Portsmouth: Under 1.5Lost58%
our numbers for Portsmouth: 1.5 offsides against a league average of 1.8
For the brave
Correct Score: 2:1Lost10%
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%56%O2.563%57%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.1not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Portsmouth1:1SouthamptonD
- Southampton0:0PortsmouthD
- Southampton2:2PortsmouthD
- Portsmouth1:1SouthamptonD
- Portsmouth4:1SouthamptonL
Southampton's record: 0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.6league 10.4under 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.6 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 6
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.8under 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.lost · ended 7
RefereeA. Herczeg−0.1 yellow cards vs average30 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)72%O2.51:1coverageleague 63% · H2H 4/5not covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.2 : 1.0total 3.2Attack/defence1.9 : 1.1total 3.0
Southampton : PortsmouthMost likely scores
Market1-110%2-110%2-010%1-08%3-17%3-0—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%2-09%1-010%3-16%3-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-010%2-09%1-01-08%1-010%3-13-17%3-16%3-03-0—3-06%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 84%80% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84%80% | 80% |
| 12 – no draw | 80%77% | 77% |
| Our tip: 1 – Southampton win | 64%57% · Elo 63% | 57%· Elo 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63%57% | 57% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 60%65% | 65% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58%56% | 56% |
| Both teams to score: no | 42%44% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%35% | 35% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37%43% | 43% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 36%43% | 43% |
| X – draw | 20%23% · Elo 21% | 23%· Elo 21% |
| 2 – Portsmouth win | 16%20% · Elo 16% | 20%· Elo 16% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Southampton attack vs Portsmouth defenceattack1623defence1485+138 pts to the attack
Portsmouth attack vs Southampton defenceattack1468defence1528−60 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.557%56%
8.544%40%
9.532%30%
10.522%20%
Each team on its own
Southamptonwe expect 5.0, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 54%
Portsmouthwe expect 3.4, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 45%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 20.6 in this match, 20.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.556%56%
20.548%46%
21.541%36%
22.534%32%
Each team on its own
Southamptonwe expect 9.2, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 43%
Portsmouthwe expect 11.8, league average 10.5 · chance of over 10.5: 61%
Referee: 19.5 fouls per match on average (28 matches in our data)−0.4 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 3.9 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.574%66%
3.554%49%
4.535%31%
5.520%18%
Each team on its own
Southamptonwe expect 2.5, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 69%
Portsmouthwe expect 1.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20:10 | 13 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Southampton vs Portsmouth?
Southampton 1-0 Portsmouth (half time 1-0).
Did the Southampton vs Portsmouth tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Match Result: Southampton. The tip won.