ChampionshipMatchday 6
Southampton 3-1 Swansea: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
- Referee:
- Lewis Smith
Our tips
Main tip
Cards: Over 3.5Lost57%
5.6 cards a match in the hosts' matches, 4.0 in the visitors', league average 3.9
For the brave
Cards: Over 4.5Lost38%
5.6 cards a match in the hosts' matches, 4.0 in the visitors', league average 3.9
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%54%O2.556%52%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.1both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Swansea1:2SouthamptonW
- Southampton0:0SwanseaD
- Swansea1:3SouthamptonW
- Southampton5:0SwanseaW
- Swansea0:1SouthamptonW
Southampton's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.7league 10.4under 10.5: 50%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 12
Cardsleague cards4.1league 3.9over 3.5: 57%Expected cards: 4.1 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 3.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 8%.lost · ended 1
RefereeL. Smith+0.2 cards vs average32 matches
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.8 : 1.1total 2.9Attack/defence1.7 : 1.1total 2.7
Southampton : SwanseaMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-09%2-110%2-09%0-0—0-1—1-26%Attack/defence1-112%1-010%2-110%2-09%0-07%0-17%1-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-01-09%1-010%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-09%2-09%0-00-0—0-07%0-10-1—0-17%1-21-26%1-2—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 77%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66%71% | 71% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57%54% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56%52% | 52% |
| 1 – Southampton win | 52%51% · Elo 54% | 51%· Elo 54% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 48%49% | 49% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44%48% | 48% |
| Both teams to score: no | 43%46% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34%29% | 29% |
| X – draw | 25%25% · Elo 25% | 25%· Elo 25% |
| 2 – Swansea win | 23%24% · Elo 21% | 24%· Elo 21% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Southampton attack vs Swansea defenceattack1610defence1534+76 pts to the attack
Swansea attack vs Southampton defenceattack1485defence1528−43 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Swansea concede only 0.6 goals per game
- Swansea: 21 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Swansea: unbeaten in 8 matches
- Southampton played 3 days ago
- Swansea played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16:7 | 23 |
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20:10 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Southampton vs Swansea?
Southampton 3-1 Swansea (half time 2-0).
Did the Southampton vs Swansea tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Cards: Over 3.5. The tip lost.