ChampionshipMatchday 11
Watford vs Charlton: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%49%O2.550%44%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Watford1:1CharltonD
- Charlton1:0WatfordL
- Watford5:0CharltonW
- Charlton1:0WatfordL
- Charlton3:1WatfordL
Watford's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.4under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.2total 2.7Attack/defence1.4 : 1.1total 2.4
Watford : CharltonMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-09%0-08%2-19%0-1—2-07%Attack/defence1-113%1-012%0-09%2-19%0-19%2-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-09%1-012%0-00-08%0-09%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-19%2-02-07%2-08%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%70% | 70% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%72% | 72% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72%77% | 77% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 70%71% | 71% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 58%56% | 56% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55%49% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%44% | 44% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50%56% | 56% |
| Both teams to score: no | 45%51% | 51% |
| 1 – Watford win | 42%44% · Elo 41% | 44%· Elo 41% |
| 2 – Charlton win | 30%28% · Elo 31% | 28%· Elo 31% |
| X – draw | 28%28% · Elo 28% | 28%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28%23% | 23% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25%30% | 30% |
Attack vs defence
Watford attack vs Charlton defenceattack1431defence1467−36 pts to the attack
Charlton attack vs Watford defenceattack1407defence1462−55 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.557%56%
8.543%40%
9.531%31%
10.521%20%
Each team on its own
Watfordwe expect 4.6, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 49%
Charltonwe expect 3.6, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 21.3 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.561%56%
20.554%46%
21.546%37%
22.539%33%
Each team on its own
Watfordwe expect 10.1, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 54%
Charltonwe expect 11.4, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 57%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.568%66%
3.547%50%
4.528%32%
5.515%19%
Each team on its own
Watfordwe expect 1.4, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Charltonwe expect 2.1, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 61%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Watford: 4 defeats in a row
- Charlton: no win in 7 matches
- Watford: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Charlton: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10:13 | 14 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8:19 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Watford vs Charlton?
Watford are the favourites. Chances: Watford win 42%, draw 28%, Charlton win 30%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Watford vs Charlton?
Expected goals: 2.7 (Watford 1.5, Charlton 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Watford vs Charlton?
The chance that both teams score is 55%.
When is Watford vs Charlton?
The Championship match kicks off 17 October 2026, 12:30 (UK time).