ChampionshipMatchday 10

Cardiff 5-1 Watford: prediction, tips and result

·

Cardiff
0-21-10-13-11-2
5-1Full time(half time 4-0)
Watford
0-40-11-22-10-1

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Total Goals: Over 2.5Won65%

our numbers: 3.3 goals in total in this match, league average 2.6

Other tips

  • Shots on Target – Cardiff: Over 4.5Won67%

    our numbers for Cardiff: 5.8 shots on target against a league average of 4.4; Cardiff: 5.7 shots on target a match, Watford's opponents had 4.9 on average, league average 4.4

  • Fouls – Watford: Over 11.5Lost58%

    our numbers for Watford: 12.5 fouls against a league average of 10.6; Watford: 10.6 fouls a match, Cardiff's opponents committed 13.2 on average, league average 10.6

  • Offsides – Watford: Over 1.5Won60%

    our numbers for Watford: 2.1 offsides against a league average of 1.8

For the brave
Total Goals: Over 3.5Won43%

our numbers: 3.3 goals in total in this match, league average 2.6

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloCardiff147959%41%Draw22%28%Watford148520%32%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS63%53%O2.566%51%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.1both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Cardiff1:1WatfordD
  2. Watford1:2CardiffW
  3. Watford0:1CardiffW
  4. Cardiff1:1WatfordD
  5. Watford1:3CardiffW
Cardiff's record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.7league 10.4under 10.5: 50%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 7
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.8over 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.won · ended 5
Refereeawaiting appointment
Dutching(several bets at once)71%BTTS yes2:0coverageleague 60% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.2 : 1.2total 3.4Attack/defence1.6 : 1.1total 2.7
Cardiff : Watford
Most likely scores
Market1-110%1-07%2-110%2-08%3-17%0-0—0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-011%2-110%2-09%3-1—0-07%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-112%1-01-07%1-011%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-08%2-09%3-13-17%3-1—0-00-0—0-07%0-10-1—0-17%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals86%75%75%
1X – home team avoid defeat81%76%76%
12 – no draw79%75%75%
Our tip: Over 2.5 goals66%51%51%
Both teams to score: yes63%53%53%
1 – Cardiff win59%50% · Elo 41%50%· Elo 41%
Under 3.5 goals56%71%71%
Over 3.5 goals44%29%29%
X2 – away team avoid defeat42%50%50%
Both teams to score: no37%47%47%
Under 2.5 goals34%49%49%
X – draw22%25% · Elo 28%25%· Elo 28%
2 – Watford win20%24% · Elo 32%24%· Elo 32%
Under 1.5 goals14%25%25%
Attack vs defence
Cardiff attack vs Watford defenceattack1522defence1462+60 pts to the attack
Watford attack vs Cardiff defenceattack1431defence1482−51 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 47%over
We expect 8.9 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.565%56%
8.553%40%
9.540%30%
10.529%20%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Cardiffwe expect 5.8, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 67%
Watfordwe expect 3.7, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 50%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 21.6 in this match, 20.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.563%56%
20.556%46%
21.549%36%
22.542%32%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Cardiffwe expect 9.4, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 46%
Watfordwe expect 12.5, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 68%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 3.9 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.574%66%
3.555%49%
4.536%31%
5.521%18%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Cardiffwe expect 1.9, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Watfordwe expect 2.1, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 60%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Watford score only 0.7 goals per game
  • Watford score a lot late on: 6 of 15 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
  • Cardiff: newly promoted
  • Cardiff played 3 days ago
  • Watford played 3 days ago

League form

Cardiff

Watford

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
18Cardiff1024416:1510
22Watford102268:198
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Cardiff vs Watford?

Cardiff 5-1 Watford (half time 4-0).

Did the Cardiff vs Watford tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Over 2.5. The tip won.

See also