ChampionshipMatchday 9

West Brom 0-1 Birmingham: prediction, tips and result

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West Brom
1-11-01-01-10-1
0-1Full time(half time 0-1)
Birmingham
2-22-11-22-21-1
Stadium:
The Hawthorns, West Bromwich
Referee:
Gavin Ward

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Yellow Cards: Under 3.5Lost56%

referee Gavin Ward averages 3.0 yellow cards a match, league average 3.8; under 3.5 yellow cards in 6 of the hosts' last 8 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 8 (49% of league matches)

Other tips

  • Total Goals: Under 2.5Won55%

    under 2.5 goals in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings

  • Fouls – Birmingham: Over 11.5Won59%

    Birmingham: over 11.5 fouls in 6 of their last 8 league matches, West Brom's opponents committed over 11.5 in 6 of 8 (38% of league matches); our numbers for Birmingham: 12.7 fouls against a league average of 10.6

  • Shots on Target – West Brom: Under 4.5Won63%

    West Brom: under 4.5 shots on target in 6 of their last 8 league matches, Birmingham's opponents had under 4.5 in 6 of 8 (57% of league matches); 3.6 shots on target a match, Birmingham's opponents had 3.5 on average, league average 4.4

For the brave
Yellow Cards: Under 2.5Lost34%

referee Gavin Ward averages 3.0 yellow cards a match, league average 3.8

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloWest Brom156539%39%Draw29%28%Birmingham159933%33%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS51%48%O2.545%42%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.0not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Birmingham0:0West BromD
  2. West Brom1:1BirminghamD
  3. West Brom1:0BirminghamW
  4. Birmingham3:1West BromL
  5. Birmingham2:0West BromL
West Brom's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.4under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 16
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.8under 3.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.lost · ended 6
RefereeG. Ward−0.7 yellow cards vs average30 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)72%X21:0coverageleague 68% · H2H 5/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.2total 2.5Attack/defence1.3 : 1.0total 2.4
West Brom : Birmingham
Most likely scores
Market1-114%1-010%0-09%0-19%2-18%2-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-012%0-010%0-19%2-19%2-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%1-01-010%1-012%0-00-09%0-010%0-10-19%0-19%2-12-18%2-19%2-02-0—2-08%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals76%78%78%
12 – no draw72%72%72%
Over 1.5 goals72%68%68%
1X – home team avoid defeat68%71%71%
X2 – away team avoid defeat62%57%57%
Under 2.5 goals55%58%58%
Both teams to score: yes51%48%48%
Both teams to score: no49%52%52%
Over 2.5 goals45%42%42%
1 – West Brom win39%43% · Elo 39%43%· Elo 39%
2 – Birmingham win33%29% · Elo 33%29%· Elo 33%
X – draw29%28% · Elo 28%28%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals28%32%32%
Over 3.5 goals24%22%22%
Attack vs defence
West Brom attack vs Birmingham defenceattack1471defence1533−62 pts to the attack
Birmingham attack vs West Brom defenceattack1498defence1567−69 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 51%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 7.6 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.563%67%
7.549%55%
8.536%39%
9.524%29%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
West Bromwe expect 4.0, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 37%
Birminghamwe expect 3.4, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 44%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 21.4 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.562%57%
20.555%47%
21.547%37%
22.540%33%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
West Bromwe expect 9.4, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 46%
Birminghamwe expect 12.7, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 69%
Referee: 18.9 fouls per match on average (28 matches in our data)−0.5 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 3.8 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.573%66%
3.552%48%
4.533%31%
5.519%19%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
West Bromwe expect 2.1, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 61%
Birminghamwe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 50%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

League form

West Brom

Birmingham

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Birmingham1045117:1117
4West Brom1052312:1017
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of West Brom vs Birmingham?

West Brom 0-1 Birmingham (half time 0-1).

Did the West Brom vs Birmingham tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Yellow Cards: Under 3.5. The tip lost.

See also