League OneMatchday 8
Leicester vs Wigan: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 13d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS48%O2.541%43%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.0
H2Hlast 4 meetings
- Wigan2:2LeicesterD
- Leicester2:0WiganW
- Leicester0:2WiganL
- Wigan0:0LeicesterD
Leicester's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.8league 10.5over 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.8 in this match, 10.5 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.7over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.3 : 1.1total 2.3Attack/defence1.4 : 1.0total 2.4
Leicester : WiganMost likely scores
Model1-113%1-013%0-111%0-010%2-0—2-18%Attack/defence1-113%1-012%0-19%0-010%2-09%2-19%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-013%1-012%0-10-111%0-19%0-00-010%0-010%2-02-0—2-09%2-12-18%2-19%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 80%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%72% | 72% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 69%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67%69% | 69% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59%57% | 57% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 59%54% | 54% |
| 1 – Leicester win | 41%46% · Elo 69% | 46%· Elo 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41%43% | 43% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 33%31% | 31% |
| 2 – Wigan win | 31%26% · Elo 13% | 26%· Elo 13% |
| X – draw | 28%28% · Elo 18% | 28%· Elo 18% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Leicester attack vs Wigan defenceattack1483defence1523−40 pts to the attack
Wigan attack vs Leicester defenceattack1362defence1479−117 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 6.9 in this match, 7.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.552%61%
7.538%43%
8.526%30%
9.516%17%
Each team on its own
Leicesterwe expect 3.8, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 51%
Wiganwe expect 2.9, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 34%
Foulsleague average
Under 18.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 17.0 in this match, 18.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.17.544%56%
18.536%53%
19.529%53%
20.522%51%
Each team on its own
Leicesterwe expect 7.1, league average 8.9 · chance of over 8.5: 30%
Wiganwe expect 9.8, league average 9.8 · chance of over 9.5: 50%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 62%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 39%over
We expect 4.3 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.580%60%
3.562%43%
4.543%23%
5.526%14%
Each team on its own
Leicesterwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Wiganwe expect 3.4, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 83%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Wigan score only 0.5 goals per game
- Wigan: only 4 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 12 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Leicester: newly promoted
- Leicester played 3 days ago
- Wigan played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Leicester | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10:14 | 9 |
| 24 | Wigan | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:13 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Leicester vs Wigan?
Leicester are the favourites. Chances: Leicester win 41%, draw 28%, Wigan win 31%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Leicester vs Wigan?
Expected goals: 2.3 (Leicester 1.3, Wigan 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 41%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Leicester vs Wigan?
The League One match kicks off 27 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).