League OneMatchday 12

Stevenage vs Plymouth: prediction, tips and stats

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Stevenage
0-05-12-10-11-0
1.2:1.2Pre-match
Plymouth
2-12-00-14-23-0

Our tips

Tip in 6d 10h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2EloStevenage136134%31%Draw28%27%Plymouth146137%42%
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS51%O2.545%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Plymouth1:0StevenageL
  2. Stevenage1:1PlymouthD
  3. Stevenage1:2PlymouthL
  4. Plymouth2:1StevenageL
  5. Plymouth4:2StevenageL
Stevenage's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.5under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.5 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.7under 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeno referee data

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.3total 2.6Attack/defence1.2 : 1.2total 2.5
Stevenage : Plymouth
Most likely scores
Market1-114%0-19%1-09%0-08%1-28%2-1—Attack/defence1-113%0-110%1-010%0-09%1-28%2-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%0-10-19%0-110%1-01-09%1-010%0-00-08%0-09%1-21-28%1-28%2-12-1—2-18%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
12 – no draw71%72%72%
X2 – away team avoid defeat65%64%64%
1X – home team avoid defeat62%64%64%
2 – Plymouth win37%36% · Elo 42%36%· Elo 42%
1 – Stevenage win34%36% · Elo 31%36%· Elo 31%
X – draw28%28% · Elo 27%28%· Elo 27%
Attack vs defence
Stevenage attack vs Plymouth defenceattack1409defence1520−111 pts to the attack
Plymouth attack vs Stevenage defenceattack1605defence1601+4 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 66%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 34%
We expect 6.5 in this match, 7.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.548%61%
7.534%43%
8.522%30%
9.514%17%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Stevenagewe expect 3.1, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 37%
Plymouthwe expect 3.1, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 37%
Foulsleague average
Under 18.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 17.9 in this match, 18.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
17.551%56%
18.543%53%
19.536%53%
20.529%51%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Stevenagewe expect 7.9, league average 8.9 · chance of over 8.5: 39%
Plymouthwe expect 10.0, league average 9.8 · chance of over 9.5: 53%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 3.8 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.572%60%
3.551%43%
4.532%23%
5.518%14%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Stevenagewe expect 1.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 41%
Plymouthwe expect 2.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 69%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Stevenage played 3 days ago
  • Plymouth played 3 days ago

League form

Stevenage

Plymouth

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Plymouth1061318:1219
9Stevenage833212:812
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Stevenage vs Plymouth?

It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Stevenage win 34%, draw 28%, Plymouth win 37%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.

How many goals will there be in Stevenage vs Plymouth?

Expected goals: 2.6 (Stevenage 1.3, Plymouth 1.3). Most likely score: 1-1.

When is Stevenage vs Plymouth?

The League One match kicks off 20 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).

See also