League TwoMatchday 12
Gillingham vs Port Vale: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 6d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS48%O2.537%41%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Port Vale0:1GillinghamW
- Gillingham1:0Port ValeW
- Gillingham1:1Port ValeD
- Port Vale2:1GillinghamL
- Gillingham0:2Port ValeL
Gillingham's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.9under 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 44% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.7over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.1 : 1.1total 2.2Attack/defence1.1 : 1.2total 2.3
Gillingham : Port ValeMost likely scores
Model1-113%0-113%1-012%0-012%1-27%2-1—Attack/defence1-114%0-111%1-011%0-010%1-28%2-17%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-114%0-10-113%0-111%1-01-012%1-011%0-00-012%0-010%1-21-27%1-28%2-12-1—2-17%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 83%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 71%71% | 71% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 65%67% | 67% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 65%62% | 62% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64%68% | 68% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63%59% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37%41% | 41% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 36%32% | 32% |
| 2 – Port Vale win | 36%38% · Elo 42% | 38%· Elo 42% |
| 1 – Gillingham win | 35%33% · Elo 31% | 33%· Elo 31% |
| X – draw | 29%29% · Elo 28% | 29%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
Gillingham attack vs Port Vale defenceattack1450defence1538−88 pts to the attack
Port Vale attack vs Gillingham defenceattack1499defence1452+47 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 7.2 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.558%61%
7.544%45%
8.531%27%
9.520%17%
Each team on its own
Gillinghamwe expect 3.9, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 36%
Port Valewe expect 3.2, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 64%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 36%over
We expect 22.8 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.570%61%
20.564%57%
21.557%51%
22.550%45%
Each team on its own
Gillinghamwe expect 11.4, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 57%
Port Valewe expect 11.6, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 59%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.567%58%
3.546%41%
4.528%28%
5.515%11%
Each team on its own
Gillinghamwe expect 2.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 65%
Port Valewe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Port Vale: newly promoted
- Gillingham played 3 days ago
- Port Vale played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15:10 | 16 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4:9 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Gillingham vs Port Vale?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Gillingham win 35%, draw 29%, Port Vale win 36%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Gillingham vs Port Vale?
Expected goals: 2.2 (Gillingham 1.1, Port Vale 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 37%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Gillingham vs Port Vale?
The League Two match kicks off 20 October 2026, 20:00 (UK time).