League TwoMatchday 11
Newport County vs York: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%52%O2.556%47%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- York0:1Newport CountyW
- Newport County0:3YorkL
- York0:2Newport CountyW
- Newport County3:1YorkW
- York1:0Newport CountyL
Newport County's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.0league 9.9over 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.7under 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.7total 2.9Attack/defence1.1 : 1.4total 2.6
Newport County : YorkMost likely scores
Market1-112%0-18%1-210%1-0—0-28%0-0—2-17%Attack/defence1-113%0-111%1-29%1-08%0-28%0-08%2-1—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%0-10-18%0-111%1-21-210%1-29%1-01-0—1-08%0-20-28%0-28%0-00-0—0-08%2-12-17%2-1—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%73% | 73% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 73%71% | 71% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67%74% | 74% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58%52% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56%47% | 47% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 51%56% | 56% |
| 2 – York win | 48%44% · Elo 38% | 44%· Elo 38% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: no | 42%48% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33%26% | 26% |
| 1 – Newport County win | 26%29% · Elo 34% | 29%· Elo 34% |
| X – draw | 25%27% · Elo 28% | 27%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%27% | 27% |
Attack vs defence
Newport County attack vs York defenceattack1439defence1520−81 pts to the attack
York attack vs Newport County defenceattack1565defence1423+142 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 48%over
We expect 7.8 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.565%61%
7.552%45%
8.538%27%
9.527%17%
Each team on its own
Newport Countywe expect 3.9, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 36%
Yorkwe expect 4.0, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 55%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 52%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 20.5 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.556%61%
20.548%57%
21.541%51%
22.534%45%
Each team on its own
Newport Countywe expect 10.6, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 48%
Yorkwe expect 9.9, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 41%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 61%close to the league averageunderover 39%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.561%58%
3.539%41%
4.522%28%
5.510%11%
Each team on its own
Newport Countywe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Yorkwe expect 1.6, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 47%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- York: newly promoted
- Newport County: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- York: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17:11 | 15 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Newport County vs York?
York are the favourites. Chances: Newport County win 26%, draw 25%, York win 48%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Newport County vs York?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Newport County 1.2, York 1.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs York?
The chance that both teams score is 58%.
When is Newport County vs York?
The League Two match kicks off 17 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).