League TwoMatchday 12
Rochdale vs Grimsby: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 6d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS48%O2.546%42%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Grimsby1:0RochdaleL
- Rochdale0:1GrimsbyL
- Rochdale4:1GrimsbyW
- Grimsby0:2RochdaleW
- Rochdale2:0GrimsbyW
Rochdale's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 9.9over 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.7under 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.3 : 1.3total 2.5Attack/defence1.2 : 1.2total 2.4
Rochdale : GrimsbyMost likely scores
Model1-113%1-010%0-110%0-08%1-28%2-1—Attack/defence1-114%1-011%0-111%0-010%1-28%2-18%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-114%1-01-010%1-011%0-10-110%0-111%0-00-08%0-010%1-21-28%1-28%2-12-1—2-18%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 76%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%71% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71%68% | 68% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 64%65% | 65% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 64%64% | 64% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54%58% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46%42% | 42% |
| 1 – Rochdale win | 37%36% · Elo 29% | 36%· Elo 29% |
| 2 – Grimsby win | 37%36% · Elo 44% | 36%· Elo 44% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29%32% | 32% |
| X – draw | 27%29% · Elo 27% | 29%· Elo 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
Rochdale attack vs Grimsby defenceattack1484defence1541−57 pts to the attack
Grimsby attack vs Rochdale defenceattack1563defence1530+33 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 7.0 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.555%61%
7.540%45%
8.528%27%
9.518%17%
Each team on its own
Rochdalewe expect 3.5, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 29%
Grimsbywe expect 3.2, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 19.9 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.551%61%
20.544%57%
21.537%51%
22.530%45%
Each team on its own
Rochdalewe expect 9.6, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 38%
Grimsbywe expect 10.2, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 44%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 3.7 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.571%58%
3.551%41%
4.532%28%
5.518%11%
Each team on its own
Rochdalewe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Grimsbywe expect 2.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 68%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Grimsby matches average 12.3 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Rochdale: newly promoted
- Rochdale played 3 days ago
- Grimsby played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:12 | 14 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:11 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Rochdale vs Grimsby?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Rochdale win 37%, draw 27%, Grimsby win 37%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Rochdale vs Grimsby?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Rochdale 1.3, Grimsby 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Rochdale vs Grimsby?
The League Two match kicks off 20 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).