League TwoMatchday 12
Rotherham vs Newport County: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 6d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%O2.553%47%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.0
H2Hhome side's goals firstnever met
Cornersleague corners9.6league 9.9under 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.6 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 44% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.7over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.6 : 1.2total 2.8Attack/defence1.6 : 1.0total 2.5
Rotherham : Newport CountyMost likely scores
Model1-112%1-010%2-08%2-19%0-0—0-17%Attack/defence1-112%1-012%2-010%2-19%0-08%0-17%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-01-010%1-012%2-02-08%2-010%2-12-19%2-19%0-00-0—0-08%0-10-17%0-17%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%72% | 72% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 72%77% | 77% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69%75% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53%47% | 47% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 53%50% | 50% |
| 1 – Rotherham win | 47%50% · Elo 57% | 50%· Elo 57% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47%53% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31%25% | 25% |
| 2 – Newport County win | 28%23% · Elo 19% | 23%· Elo 19% |
| X – draw | 25%26% · Elo 24% | 26%· Elo 24% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%28% | 28% |
Attack vs defence
Rotherham attack vs Newport County defenceattack1516defence1423+93 pts to the attack
Newport County attack vs Rotherham defenceattack1439defence1508−69 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 7.6 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.563%61%
7.549%45%
8.536%27%
9.524%17%
Each team on its own
Rotherhamwe expect 5.1, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 56%
Newport Countywe expect 2.9, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 32%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 63%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 37%over
We expect 22.7 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.570%61%
20.563%57%
21.556%51%
22.549%45%
Each team on its own
Rotherhamwe expect 12.4, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 67%
Newport Countywe expect 10.6, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 48%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.568%58%
3.546%41%
4.528%28%
5.515%11%
Each team on its own
Rotherhamwe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Newport Countywe expect 2.2, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 64%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Rotherham: newly promoted
- Rotherham played 3 days ago
- Newport County played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 13 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12:16 | 10 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Rotherham vs Newport County?
Rotherham are the favourites. Chances: Rotherham win 47%, draw 25%, Newport County win 28%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Rotherham vs Newport County?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Rotherham 1.6, Newport County 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Rotherham vs Newport County?
The League Two match kicks off 20 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).